Republicans are already blaming President Donald Trump for the losses they expect this week.
Politico interviewed roughly a dozen GOP candidates, campaign officials and lawmakers. Few were willing to criticize Trump on the record, but in private many said the president had put them on the defensive for the entire campaign cycle. They pointed to the unpopular Iran war, his tariffs and his mass deportation agenda.
“We all know who the problem is. It’s Trump,” said a Republican strategist working on competitive races across the country. “And do we continue down a path of losing?”
The strategist predicted that a bad night could break the party’s silence.
“A lot of Republicans who have real problems with the way things have gone the last two years have been good soldiers,” the strategist said. “But what happens if we lose 35 House seats and six Senate seats?”
One House Republican said the party once thought it could beat the usual midterm curse. “There was a point earlier this year where we really felt like we could defy history,” the lawmaker said. “And then Trump bombed Iran. And it was just one thing after another.”
Another House Republican compared Trump unfavorably to a predecessor: “At least when Barack Obama was president, he only screwed his enemies, never his friends.”
The frustration is boiling over across the map:
- In the Midwest, Republicans say the Iran war pushed up fuel and fertilizer costs.
- In Maine and Michigan, tariffs have been a problem. Top Hill Republicans spent months lobbying the White House for an off-ramp in the trade war with Canada.
- In South Florida, the immigration crackdown has angered voters. “Trump won Miami, and yet he went to the place that gave him the biggest support, and kind of just f—ed everybody over,” one Florida GOP operative said.
Others said Trump is more focused on his legacy than on keeping Congress. “He cares more about the ballroom than he cares about Republicans winning the midterms,” one strategist said.
The White House and the Republican National Committee dismissed the criticism. White House spokesperson Davis Ingle called Trump “the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party.” RNC spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre said any anonymous strategist who doubts Trump’s pull “has no idea what they’re talking about.”
GOP voters are split. In a new Politico poll, 29 percent of Republican midterm voters said they would blame Trump if the party underperforms. Another 30 percent would blame his absence from the ballot.
One GOP operative had a short message ready in case Republicans lose big: “Thank you, Donald Trump.”
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