David Jolly, the Democratic nominee for Florida governor, leaped onto a church stage on Sunday and insisted over and over again, with a sense of conviction unusual for Democrats in this Republican state: “We’re going to win this race!”
He sounded more like a preacher than a politician. And, against all odds, he has started to turn some Florida Democrats into believers.
The state has not elected a Democratic governor since 1994. It has become only more Republican over the last eight years, giving the G.O.P. a wide advantage in voter registration. Mr. Jolly has been outraised and outspent by Representative Byron Donalds, his Republican rival, who has the backing of both President Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis, the state’s most popular Republican.
Yet it is Democrats who feel the wind at their backs ahead of Tuesday, at least in the governor’s race. Last week, a New York Times/Siena University poll found Mr. Donalds with only a slim lead in the unexpectedly close race.
At Mr. Jolly’s campaign rally on Sunday, Democrats took the microphone one after the other and said what few of them have dared to imagine for many election cycles now.
“Anybody feeling like this is our moment?” Mayor Eileen Higgins of Miami asked to cheers.
“I am so damn ready,” said Mayor Daniella Levine Cava of Miami-Dade County. “I feel for the first time in about a decade that there is real hope for change.”
Mr. Jolly, a former Republican congressman, campaigns from what he calls the “post-ideological space,” telling voters that he is trying to grow the Democratic coalition by welcoming Republicans and independents looking beyond party labels. The son of a pastor, he speaks about moral values driving public policy for the greater good.
“The new coalition that’s emerging in American politics is actually believing in the fundamental goodness of a nation that should provide opportunity to the most number of people, to build a bigger table and create better opportunity,” he said on Sunday at the Coral Gables Congregational Church.
In the audience were two of the three Democrats running for statewide cabinet positions, and one running for Congress. All were looking for a lift from Mr. Jolly’s campaign.
Some Florida Republicans have started to sound alarms about sluggish turnout.
Mr. DeSantis, the protagonist of many of Florida’s recent Republican victories, warned on Sunday that if G.O.P. lag persisted through Election Day, his party might be in trouble.
“If people stay home, you could end up seeing results that you’re going to be wondering what happened,” he said at a campaign event in West Palm Beach for James Uthmeier, the state’s Republican attorney general. “That’s just the reality.”
When he won re-election by 19 percentage points in 2022, Mr. DeSantis noted, “We had real strong enthusiasm.”
“Now, the atmospherics are different,” he added. “I mean, the reality is, gas is higher. That’s not good. Some of these Republicans that try to act like it’s no big deal, I disagree with that. That is a big deal for people.”
Even in Mr. Trump’s adopted home state, which has looked solidly red, not all Florida Republicans may be able to outrun Mr. Trump’s unpopularity and widespread voter discontent over the high cost of living. Mr. Trump has rallied in the state twice over the past 10 days.
There are also dynamics at play particular to the governor’s race.
Mr. Donalds, who would become Florida’s first Black governor, did not win some largely white, rural counties in North Florida in the August primary election. Some Republicans looked at that underperformance with concern about whether some white Republicans would be willing to vote for a Black nominee in the general election. Mr. Donalds has tried to win crossover votes from Black Democrats, but it is unclear how successful he has been. Mr. Jolly is white.
Meantime, traditional Democratic voters, including young voters and Black voters, appear to be turning out in part thanks to State Representative Angie Nixon, the Democratic Senate nominee.
Ms. Nixon, who is Black, ran a grass-roots campaign drawn from her experience as a union and community organizer that led to a shocking primary win. Democrats privately credit her efforts in the general election with bolstering Mr. Jolly’s chances, even though she may not win her own race. As a former Republican, Mr. Jolly might not have otherwise appealed to some loyal Democrats.
Mr. Jolly has leaned into his political evolution. He does not say that the G.O.P. left him; instead, he says that he spent years as an independent and then found his “political home” in the Democratic Party. When he began to explore a run for governor, he drove to meet party activists across the state. Many later backed him.
“We are a nation that is broken,” he said on Sunday, at times pounding the church lectern.
“Our leaders on the other side keep telling us that if we just stay divided, somehow life’s going to improve,” he added, “and it’s not working.”
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