MANAMA, Bahrain — The looming possibility of U.S. strikes on Iran has been met with weary nervousness in the Persian Gulf, as Gulf officials double down on efforts to break through a U.S.-Iran impasse that they know will leave their region vulnerable.
Publicly and privately, leaders in Persian Gulf nations, which bore the brunt of Iranian retaliation because they are home to U.S. bases, are calling for de-escalation as concerns about President Donald Trump’s war plans grow. Mediators from Qatar arrived in Tehran on Friday as part of the efforts to negotiate an end to the war, according to a person briefed on the talks, who described the trip as a “last-ditch effort to broker an interim deal between Iran and the U.S.” that was happening “in coordination with the U.S.”
Trump has seemed open to a deal — but also to resuming strikes, according to a separate official briefed on the talks, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation. Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and envoy, have been pushing for a deal, the official added, as others — including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth — appear opposed to it.
“The next two days will be crucial in determining how the situation unfolds,” said an Iranian official, who like some others interviewed for this story spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation. The Americans, they added, are “seeking a positive breakthrough” ahead of the midterm elections.
A White House official said in a statement that the United States is “in a very strong position,” pointing to U.S. gains in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s struggling economy.
“Iran has been decimated, and things will go one of two ways; the easy way or the hard way,” the official said. “President Trump holds all the cards and will do whatever is best for the United States.”
Trump, the official said, “has great relationships with all of our Gulf partners, and the U.S. has been in regular contact with all of our regional allies since before Operation Epic Fury.”
On the ground in the Gulf, there is fear and fatigue as the region once again braces for the possibility of drone and missile strikes after months of relative quiet. In Bahrain, an island nation of 1.69 million that has hosted the U.S. Fifth Fleet for more than 30 years and was targeted by hundreds of Iranian drones and missiles, signs of the previous phases of escalation are still obvious.
Damage to equipment and infrastructure at the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama, which analysts have put in the hundreds of millions, is evident even from the highway. Restaurants and shops long frequented by military members and their families, the vast majority of whom have been evacuated, are empty. Bahrainis said they have been watching the news nervously.
“People are expecting something will happen. We don’t want it, but we expect it,” said Taha Bhutto, 37, a manager at a car dealership who said that during the first months of the war, he watched as drones and missiles flew overhead.
At a supermarket, where prices have surged because of supply chain disruptions linked to diminished traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the store manager said he is stockpiling food and water for his family in case of an escalation. At a hair salon, where business has plummeted during the war, stylists said they are praying that fighting doesn’t kick off again.
Many said that their perception of the United States had changed over the course of the war — and that they had believed the Fifth Fleet base would protect them but were disappointed to instead find it becoming a vulnerability.
“Trump’s decisions have affected the whole region,” said Ibrahim, a manager at a supermarket in Bahrain. “We should not have been brought into this chaos. We didn’t do anything.”
Ibrahim, who spoke on the condition that only his first name be used because of concerns about criticizing a Bahraini ally, said that everyone here knows that “a dangerous moment” has arrived.
“We know that any outcome will be disastrous — and felt most here,” he said.
Concerns are especially intense surrounding the targeting of civilian infrastructure in the Gulf, which officials fear could be at risk if Trump follows through on his reported plans to resume attacks on Iran after the U.S. midterm elections. Speaking at an event Wednesday at the Middle East Institute, U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Connecticut) called those plans, which he said he had been briefed on and included strikes on civilian infrastructure, “insane” and bound to lead to a “devastating escalation.”
“This is the worst scenario for the region,” said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati analyst and a retired political science professor. “The chances for a strike after the election — or maybe even before it — appear to be growing by the day.”
The United Arab Emirate’s Foreign Ministry on Wednesday released a statement saying that there was a “need to intensify diplomatic efforts” and “exercise wisdom and pursue political solutions to contain tensions. Earlier in the week, Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi called on Gulf nations to form a security pact that includes Iran and Iraq, saying that there has been a “terrible cost” to antagonizing and excluding Iran.
Since the war began, Gulf nations — which have long fallen under the U.S. security umbrella — have been bolstering their defenses by ramping up purchases from the U.S. but also looking to other partners, including Turkey and South Korea.
Shortages of ballistic missile interceptors (Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense or THAAD) could leave Gulf nations vulnerable, said Albert Vidal, a research associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
But in terms of the lower layers of air defense — the counter-drone systems — Vidal said the Gulf states have a “greater menu of available options” than at the beginning of the conflict in February 2026.
One thing that is unclear, he noted, is how many ballistic missiles Iran still has in its arsenal.
“The Gulf states are in a lose-lose situation,” said Thomas Juneau, a professor at the University of Ottawa whose work focuses on Middle East security issues, noting that global interceptor stocks are running low.
Interception rates during the first waves of strikes were higher than anticipated, he said, but Gulf defenses still cannot stop every possible hit.
“It’s impossible for them to be 100 percent effective,” he said, adding that the geography of a country as big as Saudi Arabia — which is also facing attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants — poses a special challenge.
“It is a fantasy to think they could defend it all.”
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