As the risk of renewed conflict with Iran increases, Vice President JD Vance has messaged the top hard-line leader in Tehran saying that he’s ready to meet him personally to discuss a negotiated settlement to the war.
Vance sent a letter last week to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and former leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The letter and its intent were described to me by a U.S. official who’s familiar with the negotiations. The message was first disclosed by the Wall Street Journal.
The letter “focused on reasserting the primacy of national interest — both America’s and Iran’s — in negotiations,” the official said. Vance stressed that the central U.S. interest “is in ensuring Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon.” The vice president described Iran’s interest as “rebuilding [its] war- and sanctions-ravaged economy, and in preserving its national sovereignty,” the official explained. Vance, the official added, conveyed “the need for Iran to provide representatives who are empowered to discuss the nuclear issues.”
Vance’s outreach reflects the Trump administration’s judgment that Rezaei is the essential point of contact in Tehran and the only person who could build a consensus behind an agreement to halt the nuclear program. U.S. intelligence officials believe that Rezaei is in regular contact with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and that the two have communicated in the past few days, since the Vance letter was received. If a meeting were to occur, the U.S. official said, the most likely sites would be Istanbul or Doha, Qatar.
The White House believes that the window may be closing on reaching a settlement without a return to war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing for regime change as the only way “to remove this threat once and for all.” After Netanyahu’s unexpectedly strong showing in Tuesday’s elections, he retains a decisive role in Israel. President Donald Trump has said he wants to “finish the job” in Iran, and the Pentagon is surging forces to the region. But it’s clear that Trump and Vance prefer a peaceful agreement to renewed conflict.
Vance has led the administration’s diplomacy with Iran. In April, he traveled to Islamabad to meet with Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of Iran’s parliament, and proposed to end U.S. economic sanctions and build what the Trump team called a “golden bridge” through economic engagement — in return for a binding nuclear agreement.
Ghalibaf wasn’t able to sell that grand bargain back in Tehran. A thin and ambiguous memorandum of understanding was signed by the two countries, but it dissolved when they began trading fire in the Strait of Hormuz.
Since the Islamabad meeting, U.S. intelligence is said to have concluded that Rezaei is the central node in the regime. He has the respect of his former IRGC colleagues and has also consolidated power by restructuring the Supreme National Security Council with his own people. In addition, he works closely with officials who oversee the Iranian economy, which has been severely squeezed by a blockade in the strait and tight economic sanctions. U.S. officials believe Rezaei “understands the dire situation.”
Qatar has been the key mediator in the conflict, and its emissaries have been in regular contact with Rezaei and other top officials. The Iranian leaders are said to have regarded Vance’s direct letter as a sign of respect, but there’s no indication yet that they have softened their position on the nuclear issue at the center of the conflict.
U.S. officials close to the negotiations believe that the conflict with Iran is nearing a tipping point, and they want to signal to Tehran’s hard-liners that Vance’s diplomatic outreach is serious. It’s a worthy effort. But Rezaei is a leader whose entire career has been built on defiant opposition to the United States and Israel. He has the power to make a deal with America, but it would represent a startling change of course.
The Iran gambit marks Vance’s deepening role in foreign policy — and an opportunity to underline his skepticism about an unpopular war. It’s notable, too, that the peace initiative comes on the eve of a midterm election the GOP is expected to lose big. But the initiative, whatever its political utility for the White House, is a good alternative to another round of war.
The post The White House sees an Iranian hard-liner as the best hope for peace appeared first on Washington Post.
