The image we have of America these days is of a country deeply divided, separated by education, class and culture into two warring camps that cannot stand each other. When you watch President Donald Trump on the campaign trail or dip into social media, that perception is constantly reinforced. But the polling as we approach the midterms suggests that we might have missed something very important about America today. It is a country in flux, with large sections uneasy about the future and uncertain about any political loyalties. In other words, the country is politically up for grabs.
Look at the shifts from just two years ago. In 2024, Trump won 44 percent of the Hispanic vote, according to the New York Times. In a recent Times poll, only 31 percent of Hispanics said they plan to vote for a Republican for Congress in the midterms. Trump closed the massive Republican gap among young voters to within 10 percentage points two years ago. Today that gap is wider than it was during Barack Obama’s election in 2008, at 44 points in favor of Democrats for Congress. These are seismic shifts that rarely take place in as short a span as two years.
But time has accelerated, and movement that took years can now happen in months, even weeks. In Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva came second in the first round of the country’s presidential election, trailing Flávio Bolsonaro by more than 2 million votes. In three weeks, Lula managed to convince 10 million more voters to support him, winning the final round handily. Never before in Brazilian presidential elections had the candidate who came second in the first round been able to change enough minds to win in the final round.
We are living in an age of anxiety, and that means people are unsure about their political allegiances. Throughout Europe they have abandoned mainstream parties for new, often more extreme ones on the right — but also on the left. Some of this is a reaction to the fact that the centrist parties, both right and left, have failed to tackle some big issues such as illegal immigration and the breakdown of the asylum system. They were seen as unwilling to advocate assimilation into mainstream culture and as simply tinkering with a welfare state that had become dysfunctional and worn out. But when the result is left-wing anger that turns into riots in the street, the right has historically benefited. It appears that this pattern will play out in France as it approaches its presidential election next year.
The truth is, more people than ever have weak political allegiances. A recent Pew poll found that a quarter of 2024 Trump voters now viewed the Republican Party unfavorably. Of these, only about half said they would support their Republican congressional candidate in the midterms. Almost half of America identifies as independent these days. And the ones who lean toward a party don’t necessarily do so out of deep devotion to it. A Pew poll found that 64 percent of Democratic-leaning independents cited the harm done by Republican policies as a major reason for their preference, while just 27 percent cited the good done by Democratic policies. Republican-leaning independents displayed a similar pattern. According to a recent Wall Street Journal poll, 52 percent of Democrats wanted their party to moderate or stay the same, while only 37 percent wanted it to be more liberal.
The Republican troubles are in some large part self-inflicted. Voters look at Trump’s tariffs and the Iran war and tie them directly to rising prices and the crisis of affordability. Others applauded closing down the border but not the intrusive and cruel U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids against suspected undocumented immigrants. For others, the open and blatant nature of corruption in the second Trump term has been too much to take. But none of this suggests that they have turned their backs on the key tenets of the MAGA agenda. A MAGA candidate who adhered more consistently to its ideology and wasn’t narcissistic and corrupt might win back those disillusioned Republicans.
There is an opportunity here for the political center, but it will not be realized simply by saying that the adults are back and will hold Trump accountable and fix what he broke. They need a positive agenda that can allay some of the fears about the future. The best agenda would draw from left and right. Keep the border closed and revamp the asylum system so millions cannot use loopholes to enter the country. Tackle health care costs by using new technologies but also by using the power of the government to keep costs down and expand access (which can go together because the more healthy people in the pool, the more viable the system). Transform education — with the encouragement and coordination of public schools— using the power of artificial intelligence to give everyone a personal tutor. Build housing, lots of it everywhere. Tax capital more and wages and labor less.
Give Americans an agenda they find compelling, one that gives them a sense that the future can be navigated and that they will have a place in it. Doing so could win not just their vote next week but their loyalty for years.
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