Midterms are nigh — and with so many states, issues and races whirling about in headlines, it’s not always easy to know where to focus. Five writers share what states they are watching as Tuesday nears.
Robert Gebelhoff: An ugly race in Alaska
Alaska has long been a source of political drama — partly because of the state’s unpredictable ranked-choice electoral system and partly because of its libertarian-tinged ethos. But this year’s Senate race is downright dirty.
The race is functionally between two candidates: incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola. But also on the ballot will be Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a schoolteacher from a small Alaskan fishing village. He’s running with no partisan affiliation, though he was previously a registered Republican.
The New York Times reported on Wednesday that staffers on the Peltola campaign recruited the potential spoiler candidate with the intention of confusing voters. A former campaign manager told the Times that Peltola was “definitely aware” of the project, though the former aide later attempted to retract her statements. The campaign denied the report.
The Justice Department only made things worse by filing a lawsuit over the name doppelgänger issue, threatening to block certification of the results if Sen. Sullivan loses. Certainly, there’s nothing illegal about an eligible person running for office, regardless of his name. The legal threats merely cast another shadow over the election.
Still, can anyone blame Republicans for being angry? No matter what happens on Tuesday, the spectacle will further demonstrate the country’s descent into two-bit chicanery.
Kathleen Parker: South Carolina’s second Graham
South Carolina voters are riveted by two major races: the fight for the Senate seat that was once held by the late Republican senator Lindsey Graham and the gubernatorial race. Both appear to be safe bets for the GOP, but people have been known to lie to pollsters.
Graham’s seat was filled by his sister, Darline Graham, a political neophyte with big guns and outside money supporting her, not least of whom is President Donald Trump. She is running against a Lowcountry pediatrician, Annie Andrews, who appeals to voters of both parties as an alternative to what many see as a Trump rubber stamp. Graham, who appears on the ballot as Graham Nordone, is, as I write this, only 2.4 points ahead, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.
The governor’s race is interesting on several fronts. Republican Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R-South Carolina), is best known as the attorney general who oversaw the double-murder trial of Alex Murdaugh. His strongest opponent is Democrat Jermaine Johnson, a three-term state representative and a former professional basketball player, who is also African American. Wilson leads by double digits, but Johnson, 41, has plenty of time to become the first Black governor of South Carolina.
James Hohmann: Margin-of-error Michigan
Sen. Gary Peters (D-Michigan) would be cruising to reelection if he weren’t retiring. If the moderate representative Haley Stevens had won the Democratic primary, the national party wouldn’t be spending so heavily to hold this seat and could invest those resources in pickup opportunities like Kansas. Instead, the far-left Abdul El-Sayed is locked in a margin-of-error nail-biter with former GOP congressman Mike Rogers.
Trump and his pointless trade war with Canada are so unpopular in Michigan, aggravated by high gas prices caused by his war of choice in Iran, that El-Sayed is favored to pull out a victory despite his extreme views, grating arrogance and associations with odious people such as Hasan Piker. A few of my Democratic friends privately hope that their party flips the Senate and El-Sayed loses because they believe he’d be more trouble in their caucus than he’s worth. They also fear that his victory would galvanize progressives to rally behind an unelectable presidential contender in 2028.
Keep an eye on how badly El-Sayed underperforms Jocelyn Benson, the Democratic nominee for governor, especially among Black voters, in working-class Macomb County and across rural northern Michigan.
To win the House majority, Democrats need a net gain of only three seats, and three of the 17 contests rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report are in Michigan. The swingy 7th District will be a good barometer. There, Rep. Tom Barrett (R) faces William Lawrence, a former member of the Democratic Socialists of America and co-founder of the Sunrise Movement, who defeated two moderates in the Democratic primary. If Lawrence prevails, the midterms will probably be a blue wave.
Dominic Pino: Splitting tickets in New Hampshire
Both parties want the midterms to be about national issues, by which they really mean President Donald Trump. Democrats want a referendum on the unpopular president, and Trump is telling Republican voters to pretend he’s on the ballot.
But it seems like there could be a decent amount of ticket-splitting. New Hampshire is the clearest example, where Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is almost certain to win the Senate election and Republican Kelly Ayotte is almost certain to be reelected governor.
Likewise, Texas could see a governor-senator split, where incumbent Republican Greg Abbott is reelected and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico beats the historically bad Republican candidate, Attorney General Ken Paxton, for Senate. In Iowa, Democrat Rob Sand appears set to run away with the governorship while Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek are neck and neck for the Senate. Ohio is similar, with Democrat Amy Acton leading in the governor’s race and Sen. Jon Husted (R) fighting hard to keep his seat against former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown — who was there so long that many voters might think he’s the incumbent. Georgia is the reverse, where Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) is cruising to reelection but the gubernatorial election is competitive.
All of this ticket-splitting would suggest brainless partisanship doesn’t define American politics as much as some might think.
Jim Geraghty: The way the Texan wind blows
If the polling is correct — and that’s a big if — we’re about to see something in Texas we haven’t seen in a generation: a Democrat winning statewide. State Rep. James Talarico (D) is entering the final weekend before Election Day with a slim but consistent lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in the race for U.S. Senate. But it’s not just that exhaustively covered contest.
Polling also shows the governor’s race is surprisingly tight for a usually ruby-red state. Republican incumbent Greg Abbott is probably going to win a record fourth term, but that’s not guaranteed, and if Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa pull off an upset, she’ll become an even bigger star in the Democratic Party than Talarico. Further down the ballot, Railroad Commission candidate Bo French proved so toxic with his social media post attacking Indian American University of Texas students that not even Trump is willing to endorse him. Finally, the Cook Political Report categorizes two U.S. House seats as toss-ups, one leaning Democratic and one leaning Republican.
Years from now, when Americans look back at the 2026 midterm elections, they will probably begin by talking about whatever happens in the Lone Star State.
The post ‘Downright dirty’: Five states to watch during the midterms appeared first on Washington Post.
