The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady as was widely expected. The rate remained unchanged after a 10-2 vote, where 2 officials voted to hike rates by 25 bps.
Fed chair Kevin Warsh, who began his term leading the central bank in May, said the Fed is working to deliver future price stability and quash inflation during the Federal Open Market Committee press conference following the hold announcement.
“The period right in front of us is information rich,” Warsh said.
He added: “We’re going to be able to figure out what’s the appropriate protocol, as part of this package that we started to deliver five months ago, to deliver price stability.”
In September, the Fed opted for a quarter-point increase — the first hike in three years — aimed at tackling rising inflation. The decision to hold rates comes less than a week before US midterm elections, where the country’s affordability crisis and rising energy and oil prices are fresh on voters’ minds. Warsh said politics played no role in the decision.
Here is how smart people in business and finance are reacting to the hold — and why many expect another rate hike in December.
Kay Haigh, global head and chief investment officer of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management
Haigh is among the Fed watchers who expect a hike to be the likely outcome of the final Fed meeting of the year.
“We expect the Fed to resume rate hikes in December,” Haigh said. “September’s strong CPI print is a reminder that upside inflation risks remain, and the Fed is likely to look to take out further insurance.”
Steve Rick, chief economist at TruStage
Rick said Wednesday’s decision to keep rates steady made sense after September’s first hike since July 2023.
“Monetary policy works with long and variable lags, so the Fed will want to see how the higher rates already in the system are affecting consumer spending, business investment and hiring before determining whether additional tightening is necessary,” he said. “There’s no need to rush.”
Andrew Davis, head of investment strategy at Bryn Mawr Trust and a former BLS analyst
Davis said the Fed’s wait-and-see approach makes sense as inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target and the job market has cooled without “showing the kind of widespread deterioration we’d typically associate with a recession.”
“One thing worth watching is how the bond market responds,” Davis said. “The Fed controls short-term interest rates, but longer-term yields reflect a much broader set of forces, including inflation expectations, economic growth and Treasury supply. With the 10-year Treasury yield around 5%, financial conditions have already tightened considerably. Higher borrowing costs can do some of the Fed’s work without another rate hike.”
Elizabeth Renter, the lead economist at Life360 and a former senior economist at NerdWallet
“The Fed’s choice to hold today will have little noticeable impact for everyday household life,” she said. “But consumers paying attention could feel let down by the seeming inaction on inflation from the Central Bank.”
Renter suggests that families feeling financial strain cut back on discretionary expenses, as prices are likely to remain high. Those not feeling as much strain could put some money into extra savings.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners
Boockvar said markets would likely be on the lookout for unofficial guidance on rates from central bankers in the days and weeks ahead. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has leaned away from the central bank issuing official formal guidance. But other Fed officials have been more forthcoming about their views on monetary policy lately, such as by speaking about rates in public remarks.
“I’m sure again Chair Warsh will dance around making any commitment and we’ll be more reliant on the upcoming speeches and comments that his colleagues give,” Boockvar wrote in a note to clients on Substack.
Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management
Seema Shah said the hold was a good call. Amid global and economic uncertainty, the Fed has time to gather more data. Yet, she said hikes in December and early 2027 are expected.
“AI may be booming, but the broader economy is not firing on all cylinders, and elevated geopolitical uncertainty argues against rushing another hike,” she said. “But the direction of travel remains clear. The Fed is still taking back some of last year’s rate cuts, and the two dissents underline that tightening bias.”
Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings
Brian Coulton said the Fed is holding steady for more information before “pulling the trigger again.” He also expects another hike in December, based on economic factors indicating “upside risks to the US inflation outlook.”
“With 2 of the 12 voting members opting for a hike, and a more bullish assessment of current growth trends, it looks like we will get another hike in December,” Coulton said. “The statement characterized economic activity as expanding at a ‘strong pace’ rather than the ‘solid pace’ description used in September.”
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