Four Republican incumbents may have cost their party control of the House of Representatives this month, according to leading political analysts.
Cook Political Report, the nonpartisan ratings group Washington is apparently “obsessed” with, has quietly bumped four Republican lawmakers’ races from “toss up” to leaning Democrat.
On Oct. 23, less than two weeks before Election Day on Nov. 3, Republican incumbents in Arizona, Colorado, Virginia and Wisconsin dropped down in the rankings for predicted victory, Raw Story can reveal.
This drops the number of toss-up races from 21 to just 17 — and significantly lowers the chance of Republicans holding onto control of the House, according to Cook.
That’s because Democrats now have 186 solid districts, 18 likely districts and 16 leaning districts — bringing them 220 seats (two above the needed 218 for majority status in the House) if Cook’s predictions prove correct.
Republicans meanwhile, must win their 168 solid races, 13 likely races, 17 leaning races, all 17 toss-up races and three left-leaning races if they want to maintain control, according to the analysis.
According to Cook, these four flailing incumbents are dragging the whole Republican Party down.
Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ)
Rep. Juan Ciscomani made history in 2022 when he became the first naturalized citizen who was born in Mexico to win an Arizona congressional seat — and he’s walked a fine line ever since.
That’s because Ciscomani represents one of the most evenly divided districts in the nation. Trump lost it by less than a point in 2020 and won it back by less than a point in 2024.
Though Ciscomani supported Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill, which cut Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits for roughly 372,000 Arizonans in 2025, a drop of 42 percent, he also ditched the GOP’s midterm rally in Dallas and claimed in campaign messaging he doesn’t “work for Washington.”
Opponent JoAnna Mendoza has hammered him over his Big Beautiful Bill vote, but it was Ciscomani’s recent non-vote that has rippled through AZ-06, with his own brother-in-law going on the record with his rage.
On June 10, Ciscomani declined to vote on Roll Call 14, which would have shielded Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals recipients, or Dreamers, from Immigration and Customs Enforcement efforts to detain and deport them.
Now Latino voters, who represent 25 percent of Arizona’s eligible voters, are questioning whether they can trust Ciscomani to protect the rights his family enjoyed.
Harvard University’s election tracker gives Mendoza an 88 percent chance of defeating Ciscomani and claiming victory in District 6.
Rep. Gabe Evans (R-CO)
Rep. Gabe Evans has been running, all right — from questions.
When asked about tax breaks to the “ultra rich,” as a nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office analysis found within the Big Beautiful Bill Act, Evans appeared to fake a phone call and walked away.
When Colorado’s 9 News caught Evans at a private roundtable in August, he refused to say how many of the 90,000 SNAP beneficiaries in his district would lose coverage because of his vote on the Big Beautiful Bill.
When an activist asked him about rising prices, without saying a word, Evans clapped him on the back, then turned his back and walked away.
Meanwhile, Evans’ Democratic challenger, former state Rep. Manny Rutinel, has garnered strong support in the district, winning his primary by more than 60 percent in June.
Rutinel’s since attacked Evans over his allegiance to Trump, which he argues answers the questions Evans has not.
In its updated analysis of the race, Cook argues Evans made Rutinel’s campaign easy for him.
“Evans, a freshman Republican who’s done little to actively distance himself from the president, is particularly vulnerable to being swept out by a blue wave,” the analysis states. “This district moved six points right between 2020 and 2024 – from a Biden +4 to a Trump +2 seat – and Trump is now deeply underwater here.”
Harvard puts Rutinel’s chances of victory in District 8 at 79 percent.
Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA)
Rep. Jen Kiggans scoffed at service members’ families’ fears about their loved ones’ extended deployments in the Middle East.
“This is not [a] Carnival Cruise,” Kiggans told News WTKR in March. “ “This is the U.S. Navy.”
This statement from Kiggans, a Trump-aligned Republican in a key battleground state, would age poorly as reports poured in of deteriorating conditions aboard the U.S.S. Lincoln, where service members began hurling themselves overboard to escape chronic exhaustion and deteriorating conditions.
But Kiggans doubled down, continuing to echo Trump’s rhetoric dismissing the concerns as “Democrat lies and misinformation.”
Kiggans and her opponent, former U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria, are both Navy veterans, and are both skilled at using their competitors’ D.C. alliances against each other.
Kiggans ousted Luria in 2022 by tying her to former President Joe Biden, but now such commentary has given Luria the chance to tie Kiggans to Trump.
Luria likened Kiggans to the increasingly unpopular president in an August interview with the New York Times, saying she had “zero compassion or concern for those sailors.”
Cook argues Luria’s campaign is reaching her former constituents.
“Four years ago, Republican Jen Kiggans ousted Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria in the midst of an unpopular Biden administration,” it states. “Now, the Republican congresswoman is at a severe risk of losing to her former opponent.”
Harvard predicts Luria has an 84 percent chance of victory in District 2.
Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI)
Rep. Derrick Van Orden isn’t pulling his punches this campaign cycle — at least, not when it comes to threats about punches.
“I will f—— punch someone in the face for talking about [Defense Secretary Pete] Hegseth,” Van Orden (R-WI) told Raw Story Raw Story just outside the U.S. Capitol in September.
Then he drove off on his motorcycle.
This is hardly the first time Van Orden, in a fiery rematch against opponent Rebecca Cooke, has raised eyebrows by shooting off his mouth.
Van Orden so frequently picks fights on social media that Wisconsin Democrats have developed a “whine Wednesday” newsletter to pick the latest battles apart.
The Republican lawmaker’s online content spurred a cease-and-desist letter from Cooke when he used artificial intelligence for campaign content.
Van Orden responded by posting a bizarre AI clip of a red duck shouting “cease and desist!” at a pond.
He’s now being subjected to a Wisconsin Ethics Commission investigation.
This is the third time Cooke, 38, a former political consultant, has tried to unseat Van Orden.
She lost a primary in 2022 and was defeated by Van Orden on Election Day in 2024. But this might be her year.
“Even a moderate shift to the left would endanger GOP Rep. Derrick Van Orden,” Cook states. “[He] only won reelection by three points in 2024 as Trump was carrying his seat by seven points.”
Harvard University gives Cooke a 94 percent chance of finally winning District 3.
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