For many Israelis, Tuesday’s election represents a pivotal moment for the future of their country. For Israel’s neighbors in the Middle East, the stakes look decidedly different.
Few expect the election — whoever ultimately emerges as the winner — to be a turning point for the region, or to fundamentally change Israel’s security doctrine, analysts say. That doctrine, which has hardened since the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, includes crippling the Iranian government, occupying areas of Lebanon and Syria, and often favoring military force over diplomacy.
While the outcome of the election is unlikely to prompt Israel to change course, it may decide how far the country is prepared to take its regional ambitions.
Re-election for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, backed by his far-right coalition partners, could embolden him to again escalate the war with Iran and push diplomacy with Israel’s neighbors farther out of reach, analysts said.
And in both Lebanon and Syria, where Israeli forces have established and expanded military-controlled buffer zones over the past two years, a win for Mr. Netanyahu could see Israel further entrench or expand its occupation.
Even if Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition doesn’t win, many in the region do not see “any major visible strategic difference among the candidates,” said Paul Salem, a nonresident senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“They don’t see much difference in Israel’s forward defense that it insists on having — the occupied zones in Syria, in Lebanon, in Gaza and the West Bank that is just adding instability regionally,” he added.
The same is true of Palestinian statehood, which remains a distant prospect regardless of the election’s outcome. It has been a central issue for Israel’s neighbors and for American-led efforts to seek normalized relations between Israel and Gulf countries.
Saudi Arabia and others have said any agreement with Israel would require the creation of a Palestinian state. But with Israeli proponents of a two-state solution now relegated to the political fringes, such a deal appears more distant than ever.
In Iran, the outcome of the Israeli election could have more immediate consequence. While Israel’s animosity toward Tehran is unlikely to change regardless of who is in power, a change in leadership could alter the course of the war.
Ahead of the election, Mr. Netanyahu sought to energize his voter base by saying that he was the person President Trump wanted by his side to “finish the job once and for all.”
Iranian officials believe a victory for Mr. Netanyahu could prolong the American-Israeli military campaign against Iran, leading to an even more protracted conflict, analysts say. And there is no clear sign among the opposition that they would seek to curtail Israel’s confrontation with Iran.
Israel’s current approach to Iran “poses a major threat to Iran’s security and very existence,” said Hadi Borhani, a professor of Israeli studies at the University of Tehran. “From this perspective, Netanyahu’s re-election poses a threat to Iran’s territorial integrity as a whole.”
Leily Nikounazar contributed reporting.
The post For Israel’s Neighbors, the Election Offers Little Hope of a Reset appeared first on New York Times.
