Veteran Democratic political strategist James Carville revealed the one polling number he checks before any other, and it’s pointing toward a brutal night for Republicans.
Speaking in a Saturday episode of his podcast “Politics War Room,” Carville said the key is the ratio of voters who strongly disapprove of President Donald Trump to those who strongly approve. Right now, he said, that split sits at roughly 15 percent strong approval against about 50 percent strong disapproval.
Carville said that if he could get “one number in a poll,” it would be that one, because “it tells you a lot about turnout.”
He urged listeners to seek it out. “When you look at a poll, just be sure that you, when you go get it, look at that,” he said.
Carville’s guest, former Clinton White House political director Doug Sosnik, put the gap even wider in his latest strategy memo, with 52 percent of Americans holding a strong negative view of Trump’s performance and just 12 percent strongly backing him.
Carville then pointed to another lopsided measure. Trump’s disapproval among Democrats stands at 93 percent, he said, while his approval among Republicans sits around 80 percent. Using a rough 40-40-20 split of the electorate, Carville argued the math breaks hard against Trump.
“So 93 of 40 is a hell of a lot more than 80 of 40,” he said. “The Democrats hate Trump more than the Republicans like Trump.”
Sosnik agreed and added that “more polls than not have Trump’s support with Republicans now under 80.” He also cited a weekend poll in which Republicans split roughly 45 percent MAGA to 55 percent traditional Republican, a narrower margin than when the MAGA share topped 50 percent.
By historical standards, Sosnik said, the midterms should bring the biggest Democratic wave since World War II, though fewer competitive districts will likely limit the gains. Still, “it’s hard for me to see how the Republicans can possibly maintain control of the House,” Sosnik said.
He described the election as “more of a repudiation of Trump and the Republican Party than it is an endorsement of the Democratic Party.”
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