Representative Hakeem Jeffries, Democrat of New York and the minority leader, is set to campaign in the lower Hudson Valley on Saturday with the Democrat running to flip one of the country’s most competitive seats. The visit kicks off his final sprint through the swing districts that will decide whether his party can win control of the House.
Mr. Jeffries will appear with Cait Conley, a combat veteran who served in Iraq and Afghanistan. She is running to unseat Representative Mike Lawler, a two-term Republican whose signature policy victory, raising the cap on state and local tax deductions, has been popular across party lines.
Mr. Jeffries is also planning to campaign in the coming days in Republican-leaning districts in San Antonio, Texas, and Omaha, Neb.; competitive districts in Virginia Beach, San Diego and Orange County that Democrats are pushing to flip; and the hotly contested Long Island district held by Representative Tom Suozzi, a Democrat.
That Mr. Jeffries is welcome and wanted in battleground districts underscores these candidates’ view of him as a broadly appealing enough surrogate who can help make a pitch that resonates with their voters. It is a contrast to how former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, long vilified by the right as an extreme partisan, operated on the campaign trail, where many centrist Democrats needed to distance themselves from her.
And it serves as a reminder that even in a year when much of the energy among Democrats has been captured by candidates further to the left, the party’s chances of taking the House majority — and Mr. Jeffries’s chance to become speaker — are in the hands of more moderate candidates running in competitive areas.
During the 2018 midterm election cycle, Republicans sought to tarnish Democrats running in swing districts by tying them to Ms. Pelosi, capitalizing on their yearslong campaign to demonize and dehumanize her.
That year, many Democrats in tough races said they would not support her for speaker. This year, Republicans have tried to brand Democrats as “socialists,” casting the stars of the left, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Mayor Zohran Mamdani of New York City, in the role of boogeyman.
They rarely mention Mr. Jeffries, a more neutral figure and an establishment Democrat who has led his party in the House since 2022.
“He’s not seen as a figure of the left,” said David Axelrod, a Democratic strategist. “That’s reflected in the fact that unlike the president himself, he’s getting invited to competitive places in order to campaign.”
Mr. Axelrod added, “There’s no voter in America who is saying, ‘I don’t want my representative associating with Hakeem Jeffries.’”
A group of young, anti-establishment candidates who have won primaries in heavily Democratic districts this year have refused to pledge their support for Mr. Jeffries, who in many ways embodies a party firmament from which they are looking to break.
Should Democrats win the House, managing the insurgent left could emerge as one of his biggest challenges as speaker. But for now, he is wanted and welcome in the critical districts that would give him a majority.
For Mr. Jeffries, the stop on Saturday in the Hudson Valley is also personal.
He harbors a particular aversion to Mr. Lawler, who last year showily confronted him in the Capitol, in front of reporters and news cameras, during the government shutdown.
“My constituents are suffering as a result of your ridiculous ploy,” Mr. Lawler told Mr. Jeffries during a five-minute confrontation, punctuated by repeated use of the term “bro,” in which both men shouted in each other’s faces.
“Listen, you’re a complete and total embarrassment right now,” Mr. Jeffries told Mr. Lawler. “Is this supposed to be a video for your failed re-election? Is that what’s going on right now?”
Since the heated encounter, Mr. Jeffries has referred to Mr. Lawler as an “irrelevant individual” and an “unadulterated phony” who has never crossed party lines on a vote that mattered.
In a statement, Mr. Jeffries said that Ms. Conley was “going to defeat partisan hack Mike Lawler in November, and retire one of Donald Trump’s biggest allies in Congress.” He has said that the race will be the one he is watching most closely on election night.
Last cycle, Democrats flipped a number of competitive New York seats, electing Representatives Laura Gillen, Josh Riley and John W. Mannion in seats once held by Republicans. Mr. Suozzi flipped his seat in a special election.
But Mr. Lawler held on.
The district has posed a particular challenge for Democrats. Nearly a third of voters there are unaffiliated, and roughly half of households include an emergency medical worker, law enforcement officer or veteran.
Recent polls have found the race almost tied. Ms. Conley is leading Mr. Lawler, 48 to 46 percent, according to a recent Emerson College poll.
Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that two years ago in a poll at the same time in the race, 20 percent of Democrats in the district supported Mr. Lawler. This time, that support has fallen to 12 percent. Republican support for the Democratic candidate, meanwhile, has risen to 10 percent from 4 percent.
Mr. Lawler, for his part, has attempted to frame himself as a pragmatic and independent Republican who works with Democrats. He proudly points out that President Trump called him a “pain in the ass” for pushing for those tax deductions. Representative Jared Golden, the Maine Democrat who is retiring, recently endorsed him.
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