MEDINA, Ohio – On a cold fall Saturday morning, Kristin Shepard carried a homemade sign with the letters V-O-T-E to the historic Public Square in this Republican-leaning area. She was asking people to get to the ballot box, like she did, with early voting underway. But fewer people were around than she expected.
Shepard, 78, has been surprised by the influx of ads from Republicans during this election, including one she remembered about a bartender who praised not having to pay taxes on the tips she earned, referencing a provision in the Republicans’ sweeping tax cut legislation that President Donald Trump signed into law in the summer of 2025.
Shepard said that the GOP’s signature legislative achievement of the last two years has had no material impact on her own life. She is more concerned about Trump’s other policies. She voted for Democrats.
“We’re in a war that never should have been started. We have tariffs that are hurting farmers, small-business people. I could go on and on,” said Shepard, a Medina resident who has been turned off by Trump. “And I will tell you, I voted Republican more in my life than I voted Democrat.”
Republicans have bombarded Ohioans with ads with $19 million spent on competitive races through Oct. 12, intended to sell voters on the tax law that had been called the One Big Beautiful Bill. But the message is struggling to connect with voters amid anxiety over tariffs and the war with Iran, which have pushed up prices for everyday products.
The ad blitz, the most spent on the topic in any state with competitive races, is aimed at bolstering vulnerable GOP candidates in a state that was considered safely Republican for the better part of the last decade.
Yet, two dozen Ohio voters across Medina and Mahoning and counties told The Washington Post the ads were not making them feel any better about Republicans.
The tax package was the most significant piece of legislation Republicans passed in the 119th Congress, as slim majorities in both chambers and fractious divisions within the party derailed much of the other Trump policy priorities, leaving the GOP with little else to tout on the campaign trail.
Ariel Bly, a 33-year-old resident of Medina, Ohio, said the elimination of taxes on tips has been particularly helpful to friends of hers. But Bly, a swing voter who has supported candidates from both major parties, said she plans to vote mostly Democratic in the election as she is “slightly worried” about the economy.
Bly said she is “not hugely thrilled” about Sen. Jon Husted, the Republican running for reelection to one of the two Ohio seats in the U.S. Senate, or his opponent Sherrod Brown, the former Democratic senator who lost his reelection bid in 2024, the same year that Trump won the state by 11 points. Bly said given her concerns about the direction of the country, she will most likely cast her vote for Brown.
Recent polls show the two candidates locked in a tight race. An October survey of likely voters by Bowling Green State University and YouGov found that 48 percent of respondents said they would vote for Brown compared with 42 percent who said they would support Husted. Other recent polls have found the race closer.
The outcome of the Senate race could be key to whether Republicans hold the majority in the chamber. That race, and another four Ohio U.S. House seats, are currently considered competitive by the Cook Political Report.
The Bowling Green State University/YouGov poll found 58 percent of likely voters saying they disapprove of Trump’s job as president and 46 percent saying their personal economic situation has gotten worse over the past year.
While Trump is not on the ballot in the midterm election, his performance looms large over vulnerable candidates like Husted.
One $6 million ad, which has aired more than 10,000 times as of Oct. 12, promotes some of the key elements of the Republicans’ sweeping tax cuts package. It says Husted has supported ending taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security, plus a $200 million investment in rural hospitals.
Republicans have rebranded the bill they once referred to as the One Big Beautiful Bill, changing the name to the “Working Family Tax Cuts Act” in an effort to focus messaging around the tax breaks. The $3.4 trillion package extended the individual income tax cuts from Trump’s first term, created new tax breaks for business and increased the cap on federal deductions for state and local taxes. It also enacted new benefits Trump promised during his 2024 campaign, including the elimination of taxes on tips and overtime pay through 2028.
The law also included cuts to safety net programs, including Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.
Nationwide, Republicans spent $91 million ads touting the tax break legislation in competitive races, according to an analysis by The Post, although the ads don’t mention the bill by its original name. Instead, the ads tend to refer to specific provisions from the bill, such as no tax on tips and overtime.
At a campaign stop at the Mahoning County Republican Party Headquarters in Boardman, Ohio, on Thursday, Husted told reporters his final pitch to voters centers on comparing Brown’s record with his own, including his support of the tax cuts.
When asked about how voters have reacted to the Working Families Tax Cuts Act on the campaign trail, Husted said they “appreciate it greatly.”
“I’ve talked to delivery drivers and servers and people who have said this is great. It’s helped them pay off student loans, pay off cars, do things like that with the extra money they’re saving,” Husted said. “I talked to a young man in Findlay, Ohio, who told me that he was going to dedicate his year to working overtime, 55 hours a week, and the money that he would save from that alone would allow him to put a down payment on his first home.”
Drew Carchedi, a 45-year-old resident of Poland, Ohio, who attended Husted’s campaign event said the tax cuts and benefits for small businesses were particularly helpful.
Tom McCabe, chair of the Republican Party in Mahoning County, said the messaging on the Working Family Tax Cuts Act plays well in this area home to many blue-collar workers. Mahoning County used to be more Democratic but has trended red over the last decade. Trump won the county in 2016, the first Republican presidential candidate to do so since 1972.
McCabe said he thinks messaging on the tax cuts have been crucial to energizing voters in the county, which he expects Republicans to carry again in the Nov. 3 election, though he did recognize that the issues of inflation and climbing gas prices weigh heavy on voters.
“I think people have short term memories of what we were paying for bread and eggs four years ago under Biden,” McCabe said. “It’s always the pocketbook issues at the end of the day, but I think Trump’s economics policies have resonated here.”
But back in Medina, Eric Larson, a 50-year-old resident of Montville Township, Ohio, was less than convinced that the tax cuts had done anything for him.
Larson was handing out fliers at the Public Square in support of Ohio Democrats. The flier read: “SHERROD BROWN AND AMY ACTON WILL FIGHT TO LOWER COSTS FOR WORKING FAMILIES.”
Acton is currently running for governor against Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican candidate. The race is also rated as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.
Larson said he had not always supported Democrats. He was previously registered as a Republican and has a history of splitting his ticket, voting for candidates from both major parties in the same election. But this year, he said he’s voting Democrats up and down the ballot.
“I have a handful of friends who still consider themselves Republicans, they can’t even vote for this stuff,” Larson said.
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