President Trump’s endorsement of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday briefly energized the Israeli election, like a shot of adrenaline in an otherwise sluggish campaign.
In an effusive social media post, Mr. Trump described Mr. Netanyahu as “a Great Warrior Prime Minister.” But that may end up being a gift that barely gives, analysts say, with any effect likely to be short-lived.
One reason is that the Trump brand is simply not what it used to be in Israel. In the view of many Israelis, the president ended Israel’s wars in Iran and Lebanon prematurely, and his mercurial policy shifts have given them whiplash.
Even the Israeli right, where Mr. Netanyahu largely draws his support, has soured on Mr. Trump at times, particularly after he announced a cease-fire with Iran in June that many Israelis worried would not address Israel’s security needs.
Past American presidents have generally refrained from explicitly endorsing candidates in foreign countries, to avoid being seen as inserting themselves in their domestic affairs. Mr. Trump, though, doesn’t appear to share that sense of unease.
Mr. Trump’s comments on Sunday appeared to be his first formal endorsement of Mr. Netanyahu, though the president has expressed support for the Israeli prime minister in other ways in past elections.
Polls show Mr. Netanyahu and his allies in a tight race against the opposition bloc in the Oct. 27 election, which could leave both sides struggling to form a governing coalition.
Analysts were skeptical that Mr. Trump’s intervention would sway many voters. The Netanyahu-Trump relationship — which has veered from brotherly to Mr. Trump swearing at Mr. Netanyahu and insulting him in public, saying “he’ll do whatever I want him to do” — is already baked into electoral calculations, they said.
“A Truth Social post is a low-energy endorsement, compared to what once might have been expected,” said Daniel B. Shapiro, a former American ambassador to Israel.
“By Election Day, it will be out of the news,” he added.
Indeed, by Monday morning, the main headlines on Hebrew news sites had already moved on. One prominent Israeli outlet noted that some of Mr. Trump’s previous interventions in foreign elections had not always gone as he planned for the candidate, like in Hungary this year.
“Bibi Netanyahu has been Strong, Brave, and Brilliant in the face of tremendous opposition,” Mr. Trump wrote on Sunday, using the prime minister’s nickname, and signed off with a promise that Mr. Netanyahu “WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!”
That phrase in particular could be interpreted by Mr. Netanyahu’s critics in Israel “detached,” said Alon Pinkas, an Israeli political analyst and former diplomat. That is because much of the campaign has revolved around the question of who is responsible for the policy, military and intelligence failures that preceded the Hamas-led attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, the deadliest day in Israel’s history, which happened on Mr. Netanyahu’s watch.
The Oct. 7 assault ignited a devastating war in Gaza, followed by campaigns waged by Israel in Lebanon and, with the participation of the United States, in Iran. Israel’s enemies were battered but not totally defeated in the wars, and Mr. Netanyahu says there is more to be done.
Mr. Trump, in his social media post, pledged to “finish the job” in Iran unless it changes its ways. But he suggested that he would not do so if Israelis chose “the wrong Leader,” meaning anyone other than Mr. Netanyahu.
That led some Israelis to speculate about whether Mr. Trump and Mr. Netanyahu had already sewn up a deal for another joint attack on Iran after the vote.
Mr. Netanyahu thanked his “friend Donald” for the endorsement, saying, “Israel has never had a greater friend in the White House. Together we will never let Iran’s regime get nuclear weapons.” And he returned the compliments, saying in a video statement that Israel, America and the world are fortunate to have “a leader of such clarity, consistency, conviction and courage as Donald J. Trump.”
In the past, Mr. Trump has bestowed valuable political gifts upon Mr. Netanyahu that bolstered his standing with voters on the right. Shortly before an Israeli election in 2019, the president recognized Israeli sovereignty over the long-disputed Golan Heights. Mr. Trump has also advocated for a pardon for Mr. Netanyahu, who is standing trial on corruption charges and has denied wrongdoing.
At times, however, their relationship has cooled to the point of acrimony.
Last year, the Israeli government said Mr. Trump would be awarded the Israel Prize, the country’s highest civilian honor, but he did not visit Israel to pick it up. Analysts also noted that Mr. Trump and Mr. Netanyahu did not meet on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly last month.
“The endorsement gives Netanyahu and his base a boost of positive energy for the next day or two,” said Shira Efron, an Israeli analyst at the RAND Corporation, a U.S.-based research group.
“There is no doubt that his campaign would use it to illustrate Netanyahu’s supposed advantage over his competitors in terms of the prime minister’s international aura and flawless English,” she said, adding that Mr. Trump’s endorsement wouldn’t significantly change the vote.
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