Strong Santa Ana winds that fueled a rash of wildfires in Southern California have abated, and crews are turning a corner on the blazes that closed highways, damaged a military base and destroyed multimillion-dollar homes. But an incoming storm system could pose new risks for the region as crews continue to brace for more wild weather this fall.
The most destructive of the past week’s fires, the 570-acre Norte fire in San Clemente, was 25% contained as of Sunday morning, according to the Orange County Fire Authority. The blaze, which sparked around 11:30 a.m. Friday, damaged or destroyed at least seven structures and forced about 16,000 people to evacuate as 40 mph gusts fanned the flames.
All evacuation orders have now been lifted.
Firefighters will remain in the area for the next several days as they mop up hot spots and secure the fire’s perimeter, officials said.
It was one of several fires to wreak havoc in the region, where powerful downslope Santa Ana winds met with warm temperatures and dried vegetation that was primed to burn.
But a significant cooldown is expected in Southern California through the middle of the week, with widespread rain likely Wednesday and Thursday, and possibly some thunderstorms, according to the National Weather Service, which warned that the rain could trigger debris flow near recent burn scars.
“Any time we get high-intensity rainfall with any showers and thunderstorms, if they occur where there’s a recent burn area, there’s always the possibility of a mud and debris flow,” said Joe Sirard, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard. “So we can’t rule that out. … We’re going to be keeping a close eye on the storm system.”
Models are yet not in agreement about the amount of rain that could fall, with current forecasts between 1 and 2 inches along the coast and foothills of L.A. County and up to 3 inches in the mountains, he said.
Sirard said this week’s rain and cooldown also don’t necessarily mean an end to the heat that has boiled the region in recent months. “It’s not unusual to get warm spells into November, “ he said.
Indeed, the fires could signal what the rest of the year has in store. Santa Anas typically arrive in the fall, and the next three months are likely to be warmer than normal across California, according to the latest seasonal outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That’s after several months of dryness and record-breaking high temperatures that have baked the state’s landscape.
“Any time we have these strong winds forecasted … that’s the most receptive time for any start to really take hold and spread,” said Sean Doran, a spokesman with the Orange County Fire Authority.
However, El Niño is expected to bring soggy conditions to the Golden State, which could deliver an early end to the fire season. The climate pattern in the tropical Pacific is associated with warm, wet winters in California, and has already delivered powerful ocean swells along the state’s coast.
In that way, fire crews and emergency operators across the state are preparing for both wildfire, flood potential and debris flows, Doran said.
“But we always are,” he added, “because we know that’s where something happens: We have a wildfire, and the second phase of that wildfire is the potential for mudslides and debris flow as the winter comes.”
Doran said crews in Orange County are also conducting “suppression repair” around the Norte fire — an effort to restore the burned area to its original state as best as possible. The work involves throwing shrubs and clippings over the area in order to re-establish its natural habitat, which not only maintains the visual but also helps create barriers to runoff and debris flow, he said.
“It’s a really big piece that isn’t talked about as much because it’s after the flames are out,” he said. “But that’s what we really need — is to try and get that habitat back if it is to do what it’s supposed to do, and re-establish itself and have the best chance to survive as quickly as possible.”
For now, the changing conditions have helped crews turn a corner on the region’s fires. The 146-acre Bryson fire, which sparked in Malibu on Thursday, was 68% contained as of Sunday morning, and all evacuation orders had been lifted.
And in northern San Diego County, the Henderson fire near Camp Pendleton was 65% contained. The blaze burned more than 3,100 acres near the Marine Corps base in Oceanside.
The causes of all three fires remain under investigation.
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