Congressional elections and governors’ races may get the attention, but voters in 46 states will also elect more than 6,100 state legislators in November, or 83 percent of all seats. The consequences are often profound.
State legislators — most of whom are part-time with minimal staff — typically allocate billions of dollars for schools, prisons, and health care, while shaping policies on hot-button topics such as taxes and A.I. But in an era of mid-decade redistricting, their ability to redraw congressional maps could be hugely consequential for the 2028 election.
No wonder Republicans, Democrats and deep-pocketed supporters are spending record sums in a change election dominated by concerns about the cost of living.
The hunt for “trifectas.”
Some legislative races are unfolding in presidential battlegrounds, alongside competitive governors races. If one party sweeps the legislature and the governorship, the resulting “trifecta” awards the ruling party the power to pursue ambitious policies with minimal resistance.
A few states worth highlighting: Thanks to new legislative maps in Wisconsin ordered by the state’s supreme court to dismantle a Republican gerrymander, Democrats have whittled the Republicans’ edge in the Senate to 18-15, and the House to 54-45. Now Democrats are looking for total control, and focused on key races such as a Senate race in a rural southwestern district, and three House races bordering Minnesota.
Michigan is one of three states with divided legislatures. Republicans regained the House in 2024, while Democrats have an edge in the Senate. Key contests include a House race in the Battle Creek area in south-central Michigan, and a Senate race just north of Detroit.
In Georgia, Republicans have controlled state government since the early 2000s. But anger over electric bills and data centers, coupled with the strength of Senator Jon Ossoff’s re-election campaign, could boost the Democrats’ chances of flipping the 10 seats needed for a majority in the state House of Representatives.
And don’t sleep on Alaska. While the legislature is expected to remain governed by a coalition of Democrats, Republicans and independents, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state representative pitching himself as a pragmatist and a former leader of that coalition, could well become the first Democratic governor in more than two decades.
Another quest: making or breaking supermajorities.
Having a supermajority, typically two-thirds, confers significant advantages, especially in states where the governor is from the other party. The legislature can override a governor’s vetoes — as happened in North Carolina in 2024 when a Democrat switched party affiliations and helped Republicans override then-Gov. Roy Cooper’s veto of stricter abortion limits.
Two states worth highlighting: In Iowa, Rob Sand, the Democratic state auditor, is leading the governor’s race in a state reeling from tariffs, high diesel prices, immigration raids and even President Trump’s war on wind power. But if Republicans keep their supermajority in the House, and flip one seat in the Senate, his governing tools would be limited. So Democrats are leaning heavily on moderate newcomers in places like suburban Des Moines and Marshalltown, a small blue-collar city, to thwart a Republican supermajority.
In Ohio, Amy Acton, a Democrat who served as health director under Gov. Mike DeWine, a Republican, is running a surprisingly strong race against Vivek Ramaswamy, a pharmaceutical entrepreneur and former presidential candidate. Democrats who were writing Ohio off a few months ago now believe they could flip the six House seats they need to break the G.O.P. supermajority.
To be sure, hyperlocal issues can often sway the electorate. That makes legislative races difficult to forecast.
The only certainty? The status quo will remain in Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia, because legislators are not facing election.
Minho Kim contributed reporting.
The post These Legislatures Could See Big Changes in November appeared first on New York Times.
