Diesel prices in the United States are hovering near record highs — and a deal President Trump announced last week to increase Russian fuel exports is unlikely to lower them significantly anytime soon.
The amount of diesel Russia could supply under that agreement is much lower than what the country was exporting this time last year and constitutes a small proportion of the diesel supply the world has lost because of Mr. Trump’s war with Iran, energy analysts said. And it is not clear that Russia could even deliver all the fuel the president and Russian officials have promised.
The numbers are stark.
From July through September of 2025, Russia exported around 693,000 barrels of diesel a day, according to S&P Global Energy. For the same period this year, the country exported around 140,000 barrels a day. Now, Mr. Trump and a Russian deputy prime minister, Alexander Novak, say that the country would export 300,000 metric tons of diesel in October, or roughly 75,000 barrels a day when stretched across a month.
The numbers under Mr. Trump’s Russia deal look even more meager when compared with the diesel that the world is no longer getting from the Middle East since the United States and Israel began attacking Iran on Feb. 28. Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Middle East exported 809,000 fewer barrels of diesel every day from July through the end of September, compared with the same period in 2025, according to S&P Global data.
“The main issue is still the Strait of Hormuz, that there is not enough diesel coming out of the Strait of Hormuz,” said Sarah Raffoul, oil product analyst at Argus Consulting, referring to the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which a significant share of the world’s fuels used to flow.
The shortfall of diesel supplies from the Middle East and Russia is the main reason the price of the fuel is up by around 77 percent so far this year.
Russian diesel exports, which accounted for around 9 percent of the global diesel trade in 2025, began falling after Ukraine started attacking and debilitating Russian refineries last year. They’re down roughly 552,000 barrels a day, according to S&P Global Energy.
Mr. Novak said this week that by the end of the year Russia will be exporting diesel at close to the levels it was shipping before refineries were seriously compromised by Ukrainian strikes.
But many analysts consider those numbers to be unrealistic because roughly 40 to 50 percent of Russian refining capacity is offline. “The numbers that both Trump and Novak are talking about seem predicated on their refineries ramping back up to a more normalized level,” said Matt Smith, a commodity analyst at Keplr, a research and data firm.
Repairing and restarting refineries can take months or years in the best of circumstances. Russia may find it challenging to secure replacement parts because it is subject to stringent U.S. and European sanctions. The Trump administration lifted some sanctions on Russia last week, making it easier for the country to export diesel but it left many other restrictions in place.
The loss of refining capacity has forced Russia to export more crude oil because it can no longer turn as much of its oil into fuels like diesel and gasoline. Having more Russian crude available does little to bring down diesel prices because other countries do not have enough spare refining capacity to turn that crude into the fuel that powers trucks, tractors and other heavy machinery.
“Russian crude oil exports are actually higher than they were, in part because Russia doesn’t have any refineries to run, or it has significantly less capacity to run,” said William O’Neil, an analyst at S&P Global Energy. “All that crude oil that would have been processed at Russian refineries just gets exported anyway.”
Of course, any additional diesel that makes it out of Russia would increase global supplies and, in turn, reduce prices, but analysts said they expected that impact to be small.
“I don’t think anyone should discount modest effects — the people who are making money at the margin, they really care, it’s true in refining, it’s true in long-haul freight,” said Kevin Book, a managing director at ClearView Energy Partners, a research firm in Washington. “The point is the magnitude, and if you compare this to the size of the deficits, we’re talking about something that is potentially meaningful, but not transformative.”
If Russia were to begin exporting more diesel, it probably wouldn’t come straight to the United States, Mr. Smith said. The fuel would probably go to other countries like Brazil, which has a large agriculture industry and imports diesel. If Brazil bought more fuel from Russia it would end up buying less from the United States, potentially helping to lower U.S. prices.
But even having more diesel available will only do so much. That’s because the war with Iran has caused a sharp increase in the global price of oil, to just above $100 a barrel, and the price of transporting oil by ship.
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