As the votes are being counted in November’s midterm elections, there are several races that could reveal whether Democrats’ blue wave is materializing. They’re called bellwether races for their unique characteristics that reflect the national political environment.
While polls, voter enthusiasm and President Donald Trump’s unpopularity all favor Democrats, these races appear tight. Here’s what to watch for.
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The House district that sits in the middle of all House races
When you rank all 435 House districts based on how they voted in 2024, the House race with its results exactly in the middle is in Virginia, situated in the Richmond suburbs and up the coast.
Virginia’s 1st Congressional District is not normally a competitive race. The seat has been held by one Republican for two decades, and Trump carried the district by nearly 5 percentage points in 2024. But polls suggest that this year, a Democrat has a chance at winning it: A Washington Post-Schar School poll taken in September finds Democrat Shannon Taylor leading Rep. Rob Wittman (R), although the results are within the margin of error.
That this district sits in the middle of all congressional districts underscores how the House leans more Republican than Democratic, in part after years of successful gerrymandering by Republicans. (To win back the House, it’s not enough for Democrats to win a majority of all votes cast in House races. By some estimates, they will need to win 54 percentage of the vote just to win the majority.)
The fact Virginia’s 1st District is competitive now reflects a potential blue wave: Democrats need a net of four seats to win back the majority, and there are more than a dozen districts held by Republicans that on paper are more Democratic-leaning than this bellwether House district in Virginia. Polls in Virginia are some of the first in the nation to close, so we will start to get results there early in the night, too.
Michigan’s incredibly competitive Senate race
Michigan is one of the biggest Senate battlegrounds in the nation this year, a likely must-win state for Democrats to take back the Senate and a test for the progressive wing of the Democratic Party for how its policies resonate in the Midwest. It’s also been a presidential battleground that has been slipping away from Democrats in the Trump era.
It had been considered part of a Midwestern blue wall in presidential races until Trump came on the scene. Michigan narrowly voted for Trump in 2016 and 2024, in part through his efforts to appeal to the state’s working-class voters.
“People underestimate the extent to which Michigan is a very purple state,” said Caitlin Legacki, a Democrat who worked for Rep. Haley Stevens, the primary opponent of lightning-rod progressive Abdul El-Sayed.
Adding to some centrist Democrats’ concerns is that their candidate is El-Sayed. He doesn’t associate with the democratic socialist movement but has many progressive views, a biting campaigning style and a controversial campaign ally who has alienated some Jewish donors.
The Republican candidate is Mike Rogers, a former congressman who narrowly lost a Senate race in 2024 (which was a good year for Republicans) and is trying to distance himself from Trump’s Iran war to win now.
Polls show the race incredibly tight, with recent ones showing El-Sayed leading but within the margin of error.
Four Republican-held House races in Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is another presidential battleground that is very competitive in these midterm elections. Pennsylvania voters have correctly picked the presidential candidate since 2008, and this year Pennsylvania has four of the most competitive House races in the nation. (In midterm elections, only congressional and state races are on the ballot.)
Four Republicans across the state are trying to keep their seats against Democratic challengers. If Democrats win all four, that could be enough to give them the House majority.
A gerrymandered House seat in Texas
At Trump’s urging, Texas Republicans were one of the first Republican states to undergo a rare mid-decade redistricting process. They redrew a number of congressional districts in the state to be more Republican-friendly and help the party’s chances of staying in power in these midterms.
One of those new districts is Texas’s 35th, a fast-growing area outside greater San Antonio that Trump carried by 10 points in 2024. But Democrats have a chance to win this year: The district includes many White and Hispanic voters who are increasingly skeptical of Trump’s presidency so far. Sixty-six percent of Latino voters disapprove of Trump and the job he’s doing, according to a tracker of high quality polls from Cook Political Report.
“This is the best example of redistricting backfiring,” said Texas-based Democratic pollster Nancy Zdunkewicz.
Amber Phillips writes The 5-Minute Fix newsletter, a quick analysis of the day’s biggest political news. Send her an email here, or ask a question that could be featured in an upcoming newsletter.
The post The bellwether races to watch in November’s midterm elections appeared first on Washington Post.
