After the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel damaged coastal homes in Long Beach and brought flooding and debris flows to the Coachella Valley, National Weather Service forecasters project the worst has passed for Southern California — but threats remain for communities along the coast.
Wind advisories across inland deserts were set to expire early Monday morning. Coastal flooding advisories from San Diego through San Luis Obispo, however, remain in place, with two more sets of potentially damaging high tides projected for Monday and Tuesday mornings.
Currently, the most extreme high tides are occurring between 10 and 11 a.m., with milder secondary high tides between 11 p.m. and midnight. Although the morning high tides over the weekend qualified as minor flooding, the nighttime high tides did not.
Preliminary readings near Long Beach measured Sunday morning’s tide around 7.6 feet. Forecasters with the weather service predicted Monday’s and Tuesday’s morning tides would reach around 7.5 feet.
The coastal flooding advisories farther north, in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, extend through Monday morning’s high tide. The advisories farther south, from San Diego to Ventura, extend through Tuesday’s.
The weather service warned that additional isolated damage was possible but unlikely. Beach erosion and flooding of beach parking lots and pathways are likely.
Threats also remain from strong rip currents and large waves, which increase the risk of ocean drowning and could threaten to capsize small boats near shore. On Sunday morning, a man died at Dockweiler Beach, and authorities were investigating whether he drowned due to storm conditions.
The overall mellowing of the forecast comes as the extent of coastal damage remains less than what some officials feared.
The impacts were severe for some homes on the Long Beach Peninsula, as the storm swept away a portion of the historic boardwalk and damaged multiple houses. But in Newport Beach, officials said the city had so far avoided major damage and flooding after working around the clock to shore up berms.
Experts attribute the extremely warm ocean temperatures that fueled Rachel, which peaked as a Category 3 hurricane, in part to El Niño. UC Agriculture and Natural Resources climate scientist Daniel Swain also placed blame on a months-long marine heatwave preceding El Niño, as well as human-caused climate change.
Although Rachel was only the second time in history that Southern California received a Tropical Storm Watch, Swain said in a recent webinar it’s possible the region could see another tropical storm before hurricane season comes to an end.
“It’s getting a little late, but the ocean is so warm that we can’t rule out more tropical impacts into late October, maybe even early November,” he said.
Beyond hurricanes, El Niño is already bringing higher sea levels, and it increases the likelihood California will see a particularly wet winter.
But first, the National Weather Service forecasts Southern California will swing to the other side of the spectrum by the end of the week: high temperatures, dry air and some of the first Santa Ana winds of the season are expected, carrying a heightened potential for wildfires.
The fire weather is projected to begin Thursday and last through Saturday.
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