In his six years in the White House, President Donald Trump has never had to contend with a Democratic Senate majority — but that could change in January.
Senate Republicans are staring down the prospect of losing control of the chamber in the November midterm elections — and are sounding the alarm that it could be a disaster for Trump’s final two years.
Republicans have braced for months for Democrats to retake the House. But recent polling suggests Democrats could also capture the Senate, giving them full control of Congress — once an almost-unthinkable prospect.
A Democratic-led Senate would give the party the power to block Trump’s nominees, which Democrats could not do if they flip just the House. Senate Democrats would also gain subpoena power if they retake the majority, giving the party more firepower to investigate Trump.
And full control of Congress could also allow Democrats to pass some of their agenda — though Trump could still veto the party’s legislation.
As the midterms near, Republicans have started warning in sometimes dire terms about the possible repercussions. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) predicted Democrats would raise taxes and pursue a “socialist agenda” if they succeed in flipping the chamber.
Republicans have expressed particular concern that Democrats would not confirm a Trump nominee to fill a Supreme Court vacancy if one of the justices dies or decides to retire — and some Democrats say they’re right to be worried.
Then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) in 2016 blocked the confirmation of Merrick Garland, President Barack Obama’s nominee to fill a Supreme Court vacancy, leaving the seat open for more than a year until the Senate confirmed Trump’s nominee, Neil M. Gorsuch.
“The standard was set by McConnell, at least when it comes to Supreme Court justices, and I think we should stick to that standard,” Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Arizona) said. “And I certainly will be a big advocate for that.”
Democrats are planning aggressive investigations of Trump, his family and his administration if they retake control of one or both chambers. But some Democrats argue it is at least as important to fulfill their campaign pledge to make life more affordable for Americans if they win full control of Congress.
While Trump’s unpopularity could help Democrats recapture the Senate, Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Maryland) said the party will need to demonstrate ahead of the 2028 presidential election that they stand for more than just reining in Trump.
“We’re hardly wildly popular as a party,” Van Hollen said. “That’s why it’s going to be especially important that this Congress, if the Democrats have the majority, that they show the American people what we’re fighting for.”
Even if Democrats retake both chambers, their ability to pass an agenda will be limited by Senate filibuster rules, which require 60 votes to advance most legislation. Many Democrats want to scrap the filibuster, but at least two senators who caucus with the party — John Fetterman (D-Pennsylvania) and Angus King (I-Maine) — have said they oppose that move.
Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Virginia) has started talking with colleagues about drafting a bill that could pass through reconciliation, a special process that allows legislation to evade a filibuster if it conforms with complicated budget rules. Democrats could pass policies aimed at making life more affordable — which Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) has said is a priority — and undo Republicans’ cuts to Medicaid and food assistance.
“We need to be legislators, not just putting up guardrails against Trump,” Kaine said in an interview. “If we have both houses, we should use it to do what we told the voters we would do.”
Democrats relied on reconciliation after winning control of Congress in the 2006 midterms to pass legislation overhauling federal student loan programs. President George W. Bush signed the bill — which many Republicans also supported — into law. Republicans tried a similar maneuver in 2016 with less success, passing a reconciliation bill to repeal much of the Affordable Care Act that Obama vetoed.
Trump could veto any bill that Democrats pass if they regain control of Congress — but Kaine said Democrats should not assume he will.
“He deeply wants a legacy,” Kaine said. “Why else is he putting his name on things like the Kennedy Center? … The best legacy isn’t names on stuff. The best legacy is actually making something happen that benefits everyday people.”
Gallego, who put out an economic policy plan on Wednesday, said Democrats could pass some of his ideas through reconciliation, such as placing new taxes on data centers and artificial intelligence. Democrats should prioritize policies “that are moderate, modest and would be very popular with the public,” he said.
Trump has said he will spent the next two years blocking Democratic bills if Republicans lose control of Congress — but he also mused that he would “probably be able to make deals” with Democrats.
“You know they’re going to want some stuff, and we’ll get — you make deals,” Trump told Fox News’s Laura Ingraham last month.
Democrats are hardly assured of recapturing the Senate.
The party needs to pick up four Senate seats to win the majority, including at least two seats in states that Trump won by double digits in 2024. Polling shows Democrats running competitively in Senate races for at least half a dozen Republican held-seats, but Democrats could still fall short.
A Democratic Senate would test how much worse partisan tensions have grown since the last time one party controlled the Senate and the other held the White House, during the final two years of the Obama administration. Republicans angered Democrats at the time by delaying a vote for months on Loretta E. Lynch, Obama’s attorney general nominee.
The Republican-controlled Senate ultimately confirmed Lynch, with McConnell and nine other Republicans joining Democrats to support her. The Senate also confirmed Obama’s picks for defense secretary and education secretary as well as 20 judicial nominees, even as Republicans outraged Democrats by blocking Garland.
Some Republicans are skeptical that Democrats would be willing to confirm Trump’s nominees if the Senate flips in November.
“It would just be enormous gridlock,” Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Missouri) said. “I think judges wouldn’t be confirmed, Cabinet secretaries wouldn’t be confirmed. I bet a budget wouldn’t get passed. I would fear for government shutdowns. I think it’d be pretty gruesome.”
No Supreme Court nominee has been confirmed by a Senate controlled by the opposite party since Clarence Thomas in 1991 — and several Republicans on the Senate Judiciary Committee warned that Democrats are all but certain to block any Trump nominee.
Sen. John Kennedy (R-Louisiana) compared the chances of Democrats confirming a Supreme Court justice if they retake the Senate to the odds of someone mistaking him for Brad Pitt.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) predicted that Democrats would keep any vacancy on the court open for the next two years. And Sen. Darline Graham (R-South Carolina), who is facing a competitive race in November, pitched Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr.’s potential retirement as a reason to vote for her.
“Should Justice Alito choose to retire next year, a Republican-majority Senate will be needed to vote and hopefully confirm a Supreme Court nominee from President Trump,” Graham wrote on X. “If Democrats control the Senate, they will not even allow a vote.”
Schumer has done little to dispel the idea, pledging that Democrats would “not let Trump put such horrible justices — MAGA justices — on the Supreme Court and the lower courts” if they retake the chamber.
Obama told Democratic donors on Wednesday that blocking Trump’s judicial nominees is a critical reason that Democrats need to retake the Senate.
Federal judges have provided a crucial check on Trump, Obama said at a private fundraiser in Great Falls, Virginia, according to excerpts from his remarks provided to The Washington Post. If Republicans hold the Senate, he warned, Trump would have two more years to reshape the courts.
“At some point the scales may tip in the direction where he’s got carte blanche,” Obama said. “You now have a very serious danger to democracy in addition to just bad policy.”
Still, some Democrats said they would not reflexively oppose Trump’s nominees if they retake the Senate.
Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vermont) voted last year to confirm Kyle Dudek to a district court judgeship in Florida, describing him as “the needle in the haystack: a qualified Trump nominee.” Welch said he was open to supporting more of Trump’s judicial nominees if he makes better picks.
“Trump has nominated a lot of very extreme people for important positions, and we’ve been voting no on the merits,” Welch said. “Hopefully the president would get more mainstream people who respect the institutions and didn’t have to lie about who won the 2020 election. So that’s really up to Trump.”
Liz Goodwin contributed to this report.
The post Trump could face a new threat in January: A Democratic Senate appeared first on Washington Post.
