“Boy, do we have a hunk of poo for president!” fumed Paul LeBlanc, a retired welder, to John E. Sununu, the Republicans’ Senate pick in New Hampshire, during the candidate’s stop at the Deerfield fair last week. In truth, Mr. LeBlanc used a more piquant term than “poo” as he gave Mr. Sununu an earful about President Trump’s false promises. Mr. Sununu’s polite smile and genial manner never faltered as he gently extracted himself from the conversation and eased his way back toward the passing crowd.
After making his way down a row of booths offering a multitude of frozen and fried treats, Mr. Sununu stopped to chat up a burly, middle-aged guy perched on rough wooden risers. “I’m voting for you,” the man growled. “But I’m going to need you to cooperate with Trump!” Again, the candidate kept on smiling, even while getting scolded about his occasional criticism of the president.
With Mr. Trump tanking in the polls, many Republican candidates outside deep-red enclaves find themselves trying to maintain just the right distance from the president. Close enough not to alienate the MAGA faithful yet far enough not to alienate everyone else.
For Mr. Sununu, the Trump two-step is just one piece of a more complex routine. The former and aspiring senator needs to appear aligned with the president but also a Trump critic, a Washington veteran but also an outsider and a dynastic favorite but also his own man. So far, he’s been doing a crackerjack job, given the givens — even turning some negatives to his advantage — and potentially charting a course for Republicans seeking to rebrand their party in future election years. Even if he remains the underdog.
With voters signaling disgust with the political establishment, Mr. Sununu has been pushing an anti-Washington message and vowing to stick it to “career politicians.” Except that he is in this race expressly because he is a consummate insider. He spent a combined 12 years in the U.S. House and Senate before losing re-election in 2008, and he hails from a beloved New Hampshire political dynasty. Both his father, John H., and his brother Chris served multiple terms as popular governors. The family is as close to political royalty as you get in the Granite State.
Now, a golden pedigree combined with over a decade in Congress doesn’t exactly scream “Smash the status quo!” Which leaves Mr. Sununu pitching himself as an insider’s outsider: a familiar, reassuring face with the chops to take on the insanity of today’s Senate and an out-of-control president. So far, Mr. Sununu is doing strikingly well against the Democrats’ pick, Representative Chris Pappas. If he pulls this off, or even comes close, he could be proof of concept that a non-MAGA Republican with a strong personal brand can overcome the drag of this increasingly toxic president, and maybe not only in this election.
When the national political climate turns hostile for a party, its savvy candidates typically try to localize their races. Mr. Sununu has leaned hard into this. On the trail, he asserts that he cares only about what is good for New Hampshire — the man is laser focused on pocketbook issues — and doesn’t give two figs what folks in Washington think. “The New Hampshire way needs to be the American way” is his catchphrase.
It also helps that Mr. Sununu — the whole family, in fact — has a reputation as a political workhorse, which plays well with no-nonsense, politically aware Granite Staters, said Neil Levesque, the director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College. “You can’t just run on your last name,” he stressed. “You have to prove yourself.”
As for relations with the president, Mr. Sununu has a checkered record, including publicly calling Mr. Trump “a loser” during the 2024 election. These days, Mr. Sununu is more diplomatic, even as he tries to telegraph his independence. He has loudly criticized Mr. Trump’s trade war with Canada, he opposes the president’s proposal to send $5,000 checks to Americans, ditto the Justice Department’s attempt to create a $1.8 billion slush fund for political allies, and he has said it was a mistake to go into Iran without a plan to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. He is also quick to tell people that although Mr. Trump has endorsed his candidacy, he has never met the president.
The former senator is also happy to remind voters of his time in Washington. He never misses an opportunity to list the issues and bills he worked on during his previous tour in the Senate, with an emphasis on his occasional willingness to cross party lines. But he draws a bright line between his tenure and today’s political chaos. “It’s been a while since you elected me to serve New Hampshire. And, boy, have things changed,” he said in his campaign announcement video last October.
“I’ve been out of politics for 18 years,” he reminded me during his tour of the fair, insisting that Mr. Pappas is the real insider. People want change, he said.
I did not point out that Mr. Sununu has already spent several more years in Congress than Mr. Pappas, who entered the House in 2019. But I did ask if he considered it a problem that, with voters agitating for change, his party was the one running things in Washington. “People vote for the individual,” he countered.
Mr. Sununu can be sensitive about his dynastic status, particularly suggestions that some voters may be confusing him with his brother Chris — the younger and, as many Republicans see it, politically hotter Sununu. (It has not escaped notice that Team Sununu’s yard signs feature only his last name.) “You saw for yourself the number of people that recognized me as John Sununu,” he said to a small gaggle of reporters at the fair.
Whatever ambivalence the candidate may feel about being a political scion, the gig has its benefits, and he plays into them when occasion strikes.
Last Saturday, Mr. Sununu headlined an apple-picking party in Hampton Falls hosted by local Republican groups. The event was held at the home of Lou Gargiulo, a G.O.P. State Senate candidate who lives just a few doors down from Mr. Sununu’s father. “If you run out of apples here, my dad’s down the street,” Mr. Sununu quipped to the crowd. “Take all of his, please!”
At the far edge of the driveway, Michael Hamilton stood listening quietly to Mr. Sununu’s brief speech. Asked how he was feeling about the race, Mr. Hamilton said that he “might not be the best person to ask.” Why? Because, while he planned to vote for Mr. Sununu, he also liked Mr. Pappas just fine. As he saw it, both men put New Hampshire first, which is what mattered to him. (He pulled down the neck of his shirt to reveal a chest tattoo of the number “603,” New Hampshire’s area code.) That said, Mr. Hamilton harbors a soft spot for the Sununu family. He likes John E. He likes Chris. He fondly remembers their dad from back in the day. “If it weren’t Sununu running,” he told me, “I would probably vote for Pappas.”
No matter how skillfully Mr. Sununu exploits this brand loyalty, the fundamentals are against him. New Hampshire voters rejected Mr. Trump in all three of his presidential runs, and his approval ratings are deep underwater in the state. Turnout in last month’s primary elections suggested Democratic voters here are more fired up than Republican ones.
Even so, Mr. Sununu is widely expected to overperform possibly by a lot. The Sununu model is giving the G.O.P. its best shot this year at moving forward — and maybe even beyond Mr. Trump.
Michelle Cottle writes about national politics for Opinion. She has covered Washington and politics since the Clinton administration. @mcottle
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