Smoke billowed above the airport and explosions sounded in Saudi Arabia’s capital this week, as the Persian Gulf nation faced some of the biggest attacks it had seen in years by Iranian-backed Houthi militants.
While the U.S. push for a deal to end its war with Iran remains stalled, the escalating conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia is further rattling energy markets and threatening to draw in still more countries, in a region already beset by overlapping wars.
Ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November, the expansion of the violence represents a challenge to the Trump administration, which “already has enough putting pressure on oil prices,” said April Longley Alley, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, a think tank.
“The Trump administration wanted to limit the conflict as much as possible, and to keep the lid on it,” she said. “But the lid is popping off already.”
The Houthis, who receive training and support from Iran, and Yemen’s government, which is backed by Saudi Arabia, were embroiled for years in an active civil war that left hundreds of thousands of Yemenis dead. Saudi Arabia, focused on improving its international perception, agreed to a 2022 truce that left the Houthis in control of much of Yemen’s north and the Saudi-backed government in control of the south.
But the Houthis have grown frustrated in recent years by what they say is a Saudi blockade on their territory.
Last month, the Houthis launched a stunning ground offensive to take control of Yemen’s western Red Sea coast along the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a vital waterway for global shipping, including as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz.
The Houthi offensive prompted a change in Saudi policy, Prince Turki al-Faisal, the former Saudi intelligence chief, said in an interview with Arab News last week.
“Restraint has always been a hallmark of Saudi policy and action, historically, from the days of King Abdulaziz,” he said. “That restraint is no longer operable.”
Days later, the Saudi Arabian-backed Yemeni forces went on the counteroffensive, announcing on Sunday an operation to oust the Houthis from Yemen, which began with barrages of airstrikes. The Houthis have in return struck airports and energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, including refineries.
As Iran steps up attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, reducing the amount of oil getting out, Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and continued efforts to blockade Saudi ports — some of which had been used as alternatives to Hormuz — are increasingly important, Alley said.
“The Houthis can and are striking deeply into Saudi and hitting critical energy infrastructure,” said Brett Erickson, a risk advisory consultant who closely monitors oil and gas markets. “And the Houthis have less valuable infrastructure … so they are going to continue to wreak havoc on the market.”
The Houthis have claimed strikes, he said, on refineries in Rabigh, Riyadh and Yanbu — vital in producing diesel, gasoline and jet fuel, which are still seeing severely elevated prices.
Houthi spokesman Nasruddin Amer told The Washington Post that Saudi Arabia had “brought this escalation upon itself” by refusing to respond to Houthi demands — including lifting what the Houthis describe as the Saudi-led blockade on Yemen.
Saudi Arabia is receiving help in terms of intelligence from the United States, analysts and U.S. officials say. But the Trump administration has stopped short of providing the level of support that officials in Saudi and its allies in Yemen’s internationally recognized government have sought.
Saudi Arabia is relying on other partners — including Pakistan and Turkey, with which it formed a defense pact in August — for help. But Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has said that the alliance is “defensive in nature” and that his country will not conduct military operations in Yemen.
Pakistan will stand “shoulder to shoulder” in defending Saudi Arabia, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said in a statement Friday. Pakistan has said that its military support is defensive, but it has not specified the full extent of its assistance.
Ali Shihabi, a Saudi author and commentator familiar with Saudi government thinking, said that Saudi Arabia is appreciative of the help the U.S. is providing — especially live targeting information for strikes on the Houthis — but wishes there was more the U.S. would do.
“An armed, non-state actor controls a major international waterway,” he said, referring to Bab al-Mandab. “It is inconceivable that the U.S. would have allowed this to happen in the past.”
But Shihabi also said that Saudi Arabia is not waiting for help from the U.S. and is looking to work more closely with members of the Mecca alliance.
“We understand that each country has to carry its own water,” he said.
The Saudi-backed coalition made initial progress this week in retaking newly Houthi-captured territory along Yemen’s western coast. But in recent days, the balance of power appears to have shifted again — with the Houthis threatening to take the strategic town of Taiz in Yemen and repeatedly striking the airport in Riyadh, leading to three deaths, according to Saudi officials.
For Saudi Arabia, watching the Houthi momentum in September, it became clear that the moment became “do or die,” said Adam Baron, a fellow at New America, a Washington-based think tank. “They felt like they had to accept a Houthi takeover of Yemen or go forward with an offensive. So they went forward.”
Now, he said, both sides are “on the escalation ladder.”
While the Trump administration is focused on Iran, the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis is spiraling — “and poses an existential threat to Saudi Arabia and also beyond,” said Tim Lenderking, who was a U.S. envoy to Yemen under President Joe Biden.
“The Houthis are unpredictable and very well equipped and heavily armed,” he said. “They are messianic in that they believe this is a divine mission to assert their authority in Yemen and beyond, including in Saudi Arabia.”
The recent attacks are likely to affect the kingdom’s tourism sector, a key part of its diversification strategy.
“Saudi Arabia has opened up so much, and so many more people went there in the last few years that if the attacks persist it will be a big problem,” said Toby Matthiesen, a professor and Gulf expert at the University of Bristol.
Part of that plan aims to turn the kingdom into a global travel destination beyond pilgrimages to Islam’s holiest sites. But so far, Middle East wars have led to the postponement of Saudi Arabia’s star-studded Red Sea International Film Festival and Formula 1 race.
One American living in Riyadh, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of strict Saudi rules about sharing sensitive information, said that he had woken up at some point for each of the past five nights because of the sounds of explosions or interceptions.
Information about the strikes is not announced to the public, and Saudi laws prohibit taking photos of impact sites.
“Then you go to work and pretend like nothing happened,” he said. “It’s almost worse because no one has any idea what is going on.”
Dan Lamothe and Shaiq Hussain contributed to this report.
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