The U.S. military is preparing options to restart major combat operations against Iran, even as President Trump continues to show ambivalence about restarting the war, according to American officials.
Three aircraft carriers will soon be in the Middle East, a massive assembly of force, and the Pentagon, on Mr. Trump’s orders, has developed plans to strike Iran’s drone and missile arsenal, energy facilities and other military sites.
But Mr. Trump has repeatedly decided not to relaunch heavy combat operations against Iran. And the U.S. military response to Iran has been more muted in recent weeks, despite Iran’s escalating attacks on oil tankers.
In a social media post on Thursday, Mr. Trump said that he would not attack Iran before the midterm elections, and that the two countries were “having productive discussions.”
In recent months, officials said, Mr. Trump’s national security team and the Pentagon have made five proposals to him for major operations against either Iran or the Houthis, an Iranian-backed militia based in Yemen. Each time, Mr. Trump vetoed the plans.
But Mr. Trump has once more ordered up strike options. Senior national security officials, led by Vice President JD Vance, discussed plans at a meeting last Friday at Camp David. The plans center on a short, intense campaign lasting about three days, according to people briefed on the proposal.
The strikes would focus on Iran’s missile and drone arsenal, much of which Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has rebuilt since the early phase of the war. Other targets could include Iranian energy facilities and Revolutionary Guard command posts and headquarters.
The latest plans were earlier reported by Axios.
Officials have backed Mr. Trump’s assessment that some progress is being made in diplomatic talks, which have continued through mediators. The talks have continued to get hung up on the issue of Iran’s nuclear program. American officials want to reach a deal on Iran’s nuclear ambitions first, while Iranian negotiators insist that those discussions must come last.
Over the months, Iran has become a tougher opponent as its military tactics improved. Taking down Iranian missiles has required more interceptors than earlier in the war, posing challenges to America’s already taxed arsenal of munitions. Armed with satellite imagery from Chinese companies, Iran has also been able to more effectively target U.S. bases, according to people briefed on the intelligence.
Since September, the time of the last significant exchange of retaliatory attacks, Iran has struck at least 13 ships, according to a monitoring group run by the British Navy. Intelligence reports have put the number higher, at nearly 20, according to people briefed on the information. None of those attacks generated a major U.S. response.
While oil exports from the Middle East are up, Iran’s increased attacks have spooked shippers and raised questions about future energy shipments.
Throughout the summer, the U.S. military regularly retaliated after Iranian attacks on international shipping. But the far less robust response since then reflects Mr. Trump’s hesitancy to restart the war in full, officials say.
U.S. commanders are also concerned about the increasing difficulty of stopping Iranian attacks against bases where American troops are stationed, and energy facilities and other civilian infrastructure in the region.
On Thursday, in his social media post, Mr. Trump insisted that none of the oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz was coming from Iran. That is debatable, according to people briefed on intelligence reports. Iran allows some vessels to pass that have paid fees or that potentially carry some of its oil. Iran also has its own dark fleet of tankers, according to current and former officials.
Chinese companies have paid fees to Iran to transit the strait, and Iran has long secretly blended its oil with Iraqi oil to avoid sanctions. The Treasury Department on Thursday sanctioned 17 vessels that it said were part of Iran’s shadow fleet smuggling oil.
Even members of Mr. Trump’s inner circle are increasingly skeptical that military action will change Tehran’s calculus or plans. Some of these officials believe that the Trump administration’s campaign of economic pressure is working and just needs more time to force Iran to make meaningful concessions.
Even before Mr. Trump’s said there would be no strike before the November vote, officials had predicted that he would wait until after the Israeli elections, on Oct. 27, and the U.S. midterms the following week to decide whether to attack.
But U.S. military commanders are ready to begin larger operations in the coming days, in case the president shifts again.
The Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group left San Diego last week and will join the George H.W. Bush and the George Washington carriers as early as the end of October. Each strike group includes other warships carrying attack helicopters and Marines. It will be the first time since 2003 that three aircraft carriers will be in the Middle East.
At the end of the month, there will be more than 20,000 sailors and Marines afloat, along with hundreds of aircraft. But the high troop level will be only temporary. The George Washington is expected to return to its base in Japan soon after the Roosevelt arrives next month to replace it.
Despite the force buildup, it is hardly certain that Mr. Trump will give a green light to any new attacks even after the election. Senior U.S. officials are worried about further depleting the global arsenal of defensive weapons to defend bases in the Middle East, as well as the U.S. ability to intercept Iranian attacks.
Still other officials in favor of resumed operations note that Iran’s economy continues to weaken, and a short, intense barrage could intensify Tehran’s problems, especially if it hurts Iran’s ability to control the strait, according to current and former officials.
The United States has continued to take out Iranian drones and cruise missiles. But it has not attacked Iran’s dark tanker fleet or conducted retaliatory strikes inside Iran.
At the beginning of the war, the U.S. military in most cases fired two interceptors at incoming Iranian missiles, focusing on the most dangerous volleys.
But American officials now say Iran’s improved tactics and targeting have forced the United States and its regional partners to fire more missiles to thwart salvos aimed at American bases in the region.
American commanders say they still have reserves of interceptors as the war has drained stockpiles, and U.S. Central Command, which oversees military operations in the Middle East, has pulled in weaponry from Europe and Asia.
Reporting was contributed by Jonathan Swan and Alan Rappeport in Washington; David E. Sanger in Cambridge, Mass.; and Farnaz Fassihi in New York.
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