It’s hard to overstate the shock that recent Kansas polling has delivered to the Republicans. The RealClearPolitics average has GOP Sen. Roger Marshall up by just 0.2 percentage points, and even that negligible margin was pulled in his direction by a poll from a Republican firm, co/efficient, that has him up by five. The four most recent results range from a one-point lead by Marshall to a three-point advantage for Democrat Adam Hamilton. Average those and Hamilton has an advantage.
“What’s the Matter with Kansas?” bemoaned progressive journalist Thomas Frank in his 2004 bestseller focused on the working class’s support for the Republican Party in the state. Now it’s Republicans who are asking that question.
Hamilton’s résumé is probably one reason he is polling so well in such ruby-red terrain. Hamilton is the pastor of the largest Methodist church in the United States, something that shows he appeals to quiet, non-evangelical Protestant voters. Though Republicans have criticized him for his handling of allegations of sexual abuse by staff in 2005 at a program his church ran, Hamilton doesn’t have a record of endorsing strongly progressive viewpoints — unlike Democrat Senate nominee James Talarico in Texas, whose progressive leanings are being used against him.
He’s a good fit for the state, and his campaign is smartly positioned to appeal to the sort of Republican and independent voters who have sometimes supported Democratic candidates for Kansas governor over the past 20 years. Hamilton’s campaign website says he’s “running to end the chaos and bring people together to solve real problems.” His campaign motto — “Faith. Family. Kansas.” — could have come straight from a Republican playbook.
In a normal election year, that wouldn’t be enough. But 2026 is shaping up to be strongly Democratic, and the trend happens to be especially potent throughout the nation’s agricultural areas. In ag-heavy Kansas, that’s a huge problem for the GOP. It’s the economy, stupid, once again.
The war in Iran has dramatically increased the cost of diesel fuel and fertilizer, which have combined with low rainfall to crimp many farmers’ bottom lines. There’s no escaping the fact that without the war, farmers would not be facing such dramatic increases in the costs of production. There’s only so much a GOP campaign can do to spin its way out of that trap.
Then there’s the constant drama from Donald Trump. The president campaigned in 2024 promising to end the chaos of inflation, immigration and global conflict that characterized Joe Biden’s presidency. Instead, he’s dialed things up to 11, inflaming passions even on issues where the public largely agrees with him, such as immigration enforcement. When Hamilton says he wants to “end the chaos,” voters frustrated with Trump 2.0 get the message.
Republicans are right to be worried, and they are shifting resources to meet the danger. The GOP leadership’s super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, is reportedly moving money away from North Carolina and plans to spend up to $14 million to bolster Marshall. That’s a huge sum in a state whose largest media market, Kansas City, ranks only 33rd nationally. It’s also a sign of how seriously the party views the threat.
Still, remember those all-important cross tabulations. A look under the hood of some of the polls shows why Marshall should still be rated the favorite. The New York Times-Siena College poll that had Marshall up by one also showed Republicans leading Democrats by six percentage points on the generic congressional ballot. On top of that, the sample of respondents voted for Trump by only 11 points, a significant drop from the 16 points he actually won the state by. The possibility of a sample slightly skewed to the left and the fact that undecided voters are likelier to be Trump-voting Republicans suggest Marshall is in a stronger position than the top-line margin suggests.
That’s still closer than it should be, and the cross tabs in both this poll and one taken by Emerson College shed light on that as well. Both find that independents favor Hamilton by wide margins, a result being seen in many other polls of competitive Senate races. They also find that a significant number of Republicans are either defecting from Marshall or remain undecided. Trump’s chaotic missteps are clearly driving away the swing voters who made him president again.
The smart money is still on Marshall; he’s a 2-1 favorite in the latest Polymarket odds. That’s too close for comfort for the GOP. Republicans wish they could, like Dorothy in Oz, simply click their heels and go home to a Kansas where everything is safe. But the Trump tornado has touched down there, too, and when a tornado wreaks its havoc, nothing can escape its destructive power.
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