Republicans have dominated power in the states for years: They’ve held a majority of the nation’s governors’ offices and have had control in a majority of state legislatures going back to when President Barack Obama was in office.
That could change this November. In addition to control of Congress, many state lawmakers and governors are on the ballot in the midterm elections, and Democrats are eyeing big wins.
A Washington Post analysis finds Democrats could break up full Republican control in as many as six states and win unified control in as many as seven of their own. That means Democrats could rewrite policy on redistricting, abortion, climate, education and taxes in more states than ever in the Trump era.
But to do this, Democrats will have to win in states where they haven’t been able to for decades. Here’s more about the battle for power in states in this midterm election.
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Democrats have a chance to win governors’ mansions in red-leaning states
As with the Senate, not every governor is up for reelection. This November, Republicans are defending more governor’s mansions than Democrats, and Democratic voter enthusiasm to change control of Congress could have the same effect in these state races.
Democrats have a chance to win governors’ races in Iowa (where Democrats are also surprisingly competitive in Senate and House races), Ohio (where President Donald Trump’s ally Vivek Ramaswamy is struggling), Alaska (where a four-way ballot with three Republicans on it could give Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins an opening), Nevada (where Democrats are trying to kick out a Republican governor) and Georgia (where there is a competitive Senate race, with Jon Ossoff motivating Democratic voters).
In a really good year for Democrats, they could even win the governor’s races in Texas (which also has a competitive Senate race), Florida and Vermont.
“Democrats could flip as many as five, six or even seven governor’s races,” said Lou Jacobson, chief author of the 2026 “Almanac of American Politics,” who is rankingthe most competitive races for governor. Republicans are mostly playing defense but could pick up the governor’s mansion in Kansas, where Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is term-limited.
But Republicans who are running for state offices may have a degree of separation from Trump’s unpopular policies. “Voters tend to view state issues as being distinct from D.C.,” Jacobson said, “and if you’re mad at Donald Trump, it doesn’t necessarily mean you’re mad at your governor.”
Democrats also are expected to pick up power in state legislatures
More than a decade ago, Republicans invested heavily in wining state legislatures with the aim of controlling the redistricting process. Democrats have been chipping away at that deficit, and this year they have a chance to make a significant dent in control of state legislatures. They could win control of state Houses or state Senates (or both) in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
In some of these states, if they also win the governor’s race, they could win what’s called a governing “trifecta”: control of the state legislature and governor’s mansion.
State legislative races don’t get a lot of attention or advertising, so they tend to be at the mercy of the national mood — which is very much pointing in Democrats’ direction — and engaged voters, who have tended to lean more Democratic in recent elections.
“I’m very excited,” said Carolyn Fiddler, a Democratic state legislative analyst who writes the newsletter This Week in Statehouse Action. “A rising tide lifts all boats. And a lot of things are happening at the state level that are getting voters amped up.”
Amber Phillips writes The 5-Minute Fix newsletter, a quick analysis of the day’s biggest political news. Send her an email here, or ask a question that could be featured in an upcoming newsletter.
The post The midterm battle for power in the states appeared first on Washington Post.
