Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since before World War II.
But this year, this reliably Republican state has unexpectedly lurched toward the center of the battle for control of the Senate.
Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas, a first-term Republican, is in such a competitive race that the top super PAC for Senate Republicans is diverting millions of dollars to the state that it would prefer to be spending in traditional battlegrounds.
With a month until Election Day, Mr. Marshall and his Democratic challenger, the Rev. Adam Hamilton, are roughly tied at 45 percent each, according to a New York Times/Siena University poll released this weekend.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report still grades the race as leaning toward Republicans. But Democrats have become more optimistic, and Republicans are increasingly nervous.
Here are three reasons Kansas is competitive:
The state’s economy has been hit hard in President Trump’s second term.
Kansas’s farming-heavy economy has been buffeted by challenges both of the president’s making and out of his control.
Mr. Trump’s war with Iran has driven up the costs of gasoline and diesel.
The president, as part of his trade wars, has allowed a flood of ground beef imports into the United States with lower tariffs, squeezing Kansas cattle farmers.
And the administration’s immigration crackdown has rattled ranchers who rely on immigrants to keep the cattle supply chain moving.
Then there’s a deepening drought in the state that has hampered yields of soybeans, wheat and corn.
Put it all together, and the state’s farmers are in an anxious mood.
The Democrat is a unique candidate.
Mr. Hamilton is a strong fund-raiser from a well-populated part of the state — near Kansas City — who has led a politically diverse, thousands-strong congregation.
He is running on a centrist platform focused on getting the United States out of the Iran war, unwinding the president’s tariffs and regulating data centers.
Mr. Hamilton has deep roots in Kansas. His great-great-grandparents settled in Dickinson County, in the middle of the state, in the 19th century.
Among his backers are two Republican former Kansas governors: Bill Graves and Mike Hayden.
Arch Naramore, who won a fifth of the vote in a Republican Senate primary challenge to Mr. Marshall in August, has endorsed Mr. Hamilton, too.
Mr. Hamilton has positioned himself as someone who will “lead from the middle.” Mr. Marshall’s allies are trying to counter that pitch by branding Mr. Hamilton as an “extremist.”
Mr. Hamilton is less likely to be seen as “extreme” than Mr. Marshall, according to the Times/Siena poll.
The Republican incumbent has struggled.
Mr. Marshall has had a series of headaches.
Last month, The Times reported that he had filed lawsuits against more than 700 patients with outstanding bills during his decades-long career as an obstetrician-gynecologist and routinely charged patients an 18 percent annual interest rate. That has become a campaign issue.
Then there is the issue of his alignment with Mr. Trump, who has grown deeply unpopular in Kansas as economic conditions have worsened. Fifty-five percent of Kansas voters say they disapprove of the president, compared with 40 percent who approve, according to the Times/Siena poll.
Mr. Marshall is campaigning on an argument that he gets results for Kansas. His opponents say he has not stood up enough for Kansas against Mr. Trump.
Mr. Marshall has sought some distance from Mr. Trump. The senator has criticized the administration’s immigration enforcement actions, and his representatives have not said if he would be open to campaigning with the president. (Mr. Marshall campaigned with Vice President JD Vance last month.)
Still, half of Kansas voters say they think Mr. Marshall would support Mr. Trump too much, the Times/Siena survey found.
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