Not to jinx it, but this could be the first year since 1914 with no recorded hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean. And nearly two years have passed since a hurricane made landfall in the continental United States.
That was on Oct. 9, 2024, when Joe Biden was still in the White House. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were entering their last month of campaigning before the election, and Hurricane Milton hit Florida.
Since then, the Atlantic saw a relatively modest season in 2025, with five hurricanes overall, two fewer than the average number during the period from 1991 to 2020. In 2026, there have been none. More than three months into the tropical storm season, and well past its normal peak in mid-September, there is still no sign of one developing, either.
That’s a welcome contrast to the Pacific Ocean, which has experienced an intense hurricane season. That’s the result of a record-breaking El Niño, which has also generated winds that make it harder for storms to form in the Atlantic, according to meteorologists.
Evidence suggests that increased water temperature raises the intensity of hurricanes, but the data indicates that man-made carbon emissions are not causing more-frequent hurricanes.
Consider what the nation’s top scientists have to say on the matter. In a 2024 summary of the work undertaken on the subject, Tom Knutson, senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, wrote, “There is no strong evidence of century-scale increasing trends in U.S. landfalling hurricanes or major hurricanes.”
Though the number of recorded hurricanes over the ocean has increased since the late 1800s, this is largely due to improved detection. A storm easily picked up on satellite may have gone unnoticed a century ago if no ships were in its path. Once you adjust for that, hurricane activity has seen its ups and downs, but with no obvious trend. Nor do climate models tend to predict increasing frequency of storms in the future.
Those urging action to address climate change would do well not to exaggerate claims. Activists don’t help themselves with prophecies not supported by scientific observation. The wiser path would be to caution about the need to be prepared for the possibility of more-intense hurricanes, not rising numbers of them.
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