Xavier Becerra, a Democrat, has led Steve Hilton, a Republican, by more than 15 percentage points in every poll of the California governor’s race fielded since the state’s primary in June. Mr. Becerra, who would be the state’s first elected Latino governor, finished first in the open primary, just three percentage points ahead of Mr. Hilton, a former Fox News host endorsed by President Trump.
With the crowded primary field now cleared, the candidates have consolidated their bases. A recent University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, which was sponsored by The Los Angeles Times, showed each candidate drawing 90 percent or greater support from their respective parties. Mr. Becerra, however, held a large advantage among unaffiliated voters (56 percent to 30 percent), expanding his overall lead to 25 percentage points — his largest lead of the election cycle and an increase of seven percentage points from Berkeley’s poll in early August.
The polls are in line with recent governors’ races in California — Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, won the seat by 18 percentage points in 2022 and by 23 points in 2018 — rather than reflecting the leftward shift that polls of the generic congressional ballot indicate is happening at the national level.
That puts Mr. Becerra in a strong position, even with most recent polls indicating that around 10 percent of voters are still undecided. In the Berkeley poll, Mr. Becerra led Mr. Hilton among voters across all age, racial and educational groups. He also maintained a positive favorability rating among likely voters statewide, with 48 percent viewing him favorably and 40 percent unfavorably.
Mr. Hilton, who is trying to become the state’s first Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger left office in 2011, was viewed favorably by 35 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 51 percent.
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