In today’s edition … The most important number in the midterms … I want to know what you think about the Senate map … but first …
The impact of Trump rejecting Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
There is nothing holding back Republican political fortunes this year more than the war he started with Iran.
Poll after poll shows a majority of voters don’t approve of how President Donald Trump has handled the war, think the United States is losing and blame the conflict for rising prices.
That is why it was shocking when Trump told reporters Saturday morning that he rejected an Iranian plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the key shipping corridor whose disruption has upended the global economy.
“I reject their proposal,” Trump said. “They want to make a deal where they open the strait immediately because they’re losing so badly. They want to make a deal, and I think that’s fine. I like making a deal too, but that deal would not be acceptable.”
According to my colleague Steve Thompson, the plan “would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart peace talks within seven days.” U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz told NBC News yesterday that the deal also called for the United States to lift sanctions on Iran, release frozen assets and end the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports, calling it a “cynical attempt to put something on the table that they knew was unacceptable.”
Trump has repeatedly claimed that Iran is desperate to make a deal but that he doesn’t want to make an agreement that is unacceptable.
And he told Axios yesterday that the United States and Iran will continue to talk, at least indirectly.
“I expect more talks with Iran [this week]. They want to make a deal, but it is not the deal that I want to make. It is what we would have maybe agreed to a year ago. They overplayed their hand,” Trump told the outlet.
The issue with that is politics. And Trump seems to know it.
In his speech to the United Nations last week, Trump said Iranian officials are “waiting to see how I do in the midterm election” before they strike a deal, suggesting that both Iran and Trump know the war is putting pressure on the president and his party. He added that a deal will come together “right after the election.”
Earlier this month, he dismissed questions about the midterms impacting his desire to strike a deal with Iran.
“I’m not affected by the election,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “No. 1, I’m not running. But my party’s running, and I’m going to help my party. But I think my party respects the fact that we’re not allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”
That rhetoric hasn’t been enough for Republicans in tough races who are, with more frequency, breaking with the president on Iran. In fact, so many Republicans last week were saying some version of the war needs to come to an end as quickly as possible, that there was a rumor going around D.C. about a possible memo that advised the line.
Publicly, the administration is either downplaying these breaks or arguing they don’t exist.
“I haven’t seen that break,” Vice President JD Vance said last week. “What I’ve seen is people who are very excited about what we’ve done, and frankly, who don’t want to give Washington — control of Washington, D.C., over to the far-left Democrats.”
But as my colleagues Natalie Allison and Isaac Arnsdorf reported earlier this month, even Trump is acknowledging in private that “he understands his decisions on the war have contributed to the especially poor political environment his party faces.”
This dynamic will likely define the final five weeks before the midterms.
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From across the newsroom
- At every turn, Trump’s ideas for aiding U.S. consumers run into resistance, from Riley Beggin.
- In Iowa, Republicans feel the heat and try to motivate ‘frustrated’ base, from Liz Goodwin.
- See how data centers are changing the American landscape, from Kevin Schaul.
- Are the TV networks still covering Trump? It’s complicated, from Scott Nover.
- Trump now says the Kennedy Center could be deadly. Months ago, it was ‘great,’ from Jonathan Edwards and Travis M. Andrews.
- She helped lead a far-right internet movement. Then it turned on her, from Drew Harwell.
- Rise in young Catholic converts points to spiritual longing in U.S. and Europe, from Anthony Faiola and Michelle Boorstein.
What I’m watching
I have argued in this newsletter that one number — more than any other — matters more in these midterms: fuel prices.
But that analysis could get even more specific and drill down on diesel prices in particular.
The reason is the midterm map. Some of the most competitive House and Senate races this year are being fought in areas dominated by the farm economy, a sector pummeled by record-high diesel prices. This has only worsened Trump’s political fortunes because farmers have long been a core part of his base.
My colleagues Gregory S. Schneider and Evan Halper wrote an insightful piece on this dynamic, reporting that soaring diesel prices are clobbering Trump’s most faithful voters and exposing rifts in his political movement.
The duo reported: “The price shock has thrust GOP candidates nationwide into political peril. Many of the incumbents running voted against congressional resolutions to end the war in Iran, which is the main driver of the diesel shortage. They assured voters over the past several months that the high prices were a momentary blip that would quickly be forgotten. Now, they are facing voter rage.”
All prices are important to voters this year. But no other prices in America are advertised on nearly every street corner in big colorful, block numbers.
And Greg and Evan captured that dynamic well in their piece. John Sellek, a longtime Michigan political consultant who has worked primarily with Republicans and business groups, put it this way: “You pull in to the gas station, and you see on the sign ‘$7 for diesel,’ and you say, ‘Holy [cow]!’ It sinks in as, like, that’s impossible, how could fuel cost that much?”
In your local paper
Mississippi Free Press: xAI, the artificial intelligence giant founded by Elon Musk, has offered to buy out residents of Southaven, Mississippi, if they don’t join a class-action lawsuit over what the company called “nuisance-level harms.”
The News Journal (Delaware): A nor’easter battered the East Coast over the weekend, bringing heavy rain and significant flooding.
Missouri Independent: The third time was not a charm for the Trump administration. On Friday, the Supreme Court blocked Missouri’s gerrymandered congressional map, leaving the state’s 2022 congressional map in place.
From you
Overall, our readers said Trump should meet with autocratic world leaders like Xi Jinping, even if you disapprove of the Chinese leader.
“The Presidential welcome is appropriate because Xi is a world leader. Any leader should feel safe and welcome here and our leader should feel safe abroad,” said Norman St. Amour. “It is essential to having civilized discussions with world peace at stake. Welcome the man! Just don’t genuflect to him.”
“Although my opinion of Trump can’t be published in a family newsletter, I have no problem with how he welcomed Xi. The problem comes with contrasting his treatment of Xi with his treatment of allies, such as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney,” wrote Joe Wisinski.
Trump threw a state dinner for Xi, and took him to the National Archives, among other meetings. But the summit produced few headline-grabbing accomplishments.
“Clearly the summit accomplished nothing substantial but that was not Mr Trump’s objective. He wanted ‘pomp and circumstance’ and that’s what he got. The US should be engaged with every government in the world, democratically lead or totalitarian. But there is a difference between engagement and appeasement,” wrote Antonio J Ramos.
Send a reply
My colleagues Ben Binday and Eric Lau published a smart piece on how Democrats have a clearer path to take back the Senate this year, with races like those in Georgia, Iowa, Texas, Kansas and South Carolina moving toward the party. What race are you paying the most attention to? Why are you most focused on that race? Let me and your fellow Early Brief readers know at [email protected].
Thanks for reading. You can follow me on X at @merica.
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