In March, satellite sensors began to detect an enormous wave traveling east along the Equator below the surface of the Pacific Ocean. As it moved toward the coast of South America, the wave pushed up the height and temperature of the sea while heating and wetting the air above. Towering thunderstorms developed, producing large-scale ripples in the atmosphere. The ripples soon spread around the planet and began altering temperature, rainfall and the movement of storm systems.
The El Niño spawned by that colossal wave has since warmed a portion of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean more than 3 degrees Celsius above its average. Forecasts indicate a greater than 80 percent chance that this El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon that occurs every few years, will remain very strong for the rest of the year and may become the strongest on record.
There are more than two dozen climate models from agencies around the world that forecast El Niño conditions, and they often don’t agree. But this year they are more aligned than ever before in predicting that El Niño conditions will last through the end of 2026. This high level of certainty means that many of the expected impacts — intense rainfall in some regions, drought and wildfire in others and an increase in global warming — are very likely to occur.
It also means that governments, businesses and communities can benefit from this unusually clear scientific foresight. There is still time to get ready.
We know from past El Niños many of the probable outcomes. Southern Africa and India are more likely to experience reduced rainfall and drought that may strain food supplies and disrupt hydropower generation. Dry conditions over Indonesia have already led to wildfires, and this risk will most likely persist. The coming summer for the Southern Hemisphere, during our winter, may be very hot, with an elevated chance of heat waves for Australia and parts of Brazil.
Other areas, such as Kenya, eastern China and the southern United States, are more likely to experience more rain than average. Current forecasts predict a more than 70 percent chance that precipitation will be above normal over sections of the southeastern United States from October to December, increasing the risk of flooding and landslides.
El Niño events are also associated with jumps in the temperature of the earth’s surface. Seventy percent of that surface is ocean, so the oceans absorb a large share of the energy trapped by greenhouse gases and, as a result, warm. El Niño events enable a venting of some of that energy back into the atmosphere.
The last three major El Niño events, in 1997, 2015 and 2023, were accompanied by marked increases of surface temperature. Each of those years was the warmest on record at the time, and temperatures in subsequent years remained elevated. In fact, each of the following years (1998, 2016 and 2024) was even warmer than those previous record highs.
These warmer temperatures can produce more extreme weather. Heat waves are more common and intense, there are more opportunities for drought and heightened fire risk, and storm activity intensifies, producing heavier and more frequent rainfall. The entire planet is affected, and it means the weather during 2027 could be rough for many of us.
The changes brought about by the so-called super El Niño will affect agriculture, energy and water security, ecosystems, supply chains, finance, travel and health. Governments, communities and businesses should assess their resilience to such disruptions and put resources and plans in place to respond.
We can assume the summer of 2027 will be unusually hot in the Northern Hemisphere. Given this, health care systems and hospitals should prepare for surges of patients with heat stroke, cardiovascular events and kidney disease. County and municipal governments should review their procedures for responding to extreme heat, including systems for checking on older and sick people, plans for community cooling shelters and protocols for warning their constituents when it’s risky to be outside. They’ll need plans for managing the electricity supply and ensuring that the poorest residents don’t lose power in the worst heat for lack of payment.
In the western United States, the western Mediterranean, Indonesia and other parts of the world, wildfire risk may increase substantially. Preparation might include greater interagency coordination, increased funding for firefighting teams and better warning systems for communities at risk. States and governments can also encourage or incentivize homeowners to safeguard their properties by removing flammable brush or installing more flame-resistant roofs.
Regional food insecurity may disrupt supply chains and lead to hoarding, price gouging and market instabilities. The United Nations World Food Program has already released funds to areas of Africa in anticipation of crop losses. Similarly, California has already deployed materials such as sandbags and pumps to combat flooding along its rivers and coastlines in anticipation of El Niño-associated floods.
These El Niño forecasts are not abstractions of warming far in the future. They are concrete predictions of climate and weather conditions, some of which will be highly disruptive during the next 18 months. There is still time to prepare, plan and make our systems more resilient. Let’s get to work.
Jeffrey Shaman is a professor and the senior vice dean in the Columbia Climate School and a professor of environmental health sciences in the Columbia Mailman School of Public Health.
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