Top Republican donors and operatives were stunned this weekend when a GOP pollster told them the party could grow its Senate majority in November. According to Axios, one attendee called the forecast “delusional.”
Pollster Erik Iverson made the prediction at the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s fall donor retreat on Sea Island, Georgia, Axios’ Stef W. Kight reported. The annual event draws big-dollar donors, senators and their senior staff.
Iverson, a former chair of the Montana Republican Party, said Republicans could gain a seat in the Senate. But he didn’t lay out, state by state, how they would do it, Kight’s sources said.
The room didn’t buy it.
“Delusional,” one attendee told Axios.
“The mood is not good,” said another.
“I think most attendees down here are politically astute and realistic about the headwinds Republicans face,” a third attendee said.
A fourth said people at the event were sarcastically telling each other “we’re winning” and “everything’s good.”
Another source told Axios that Iverson made the comments while answering a question about the 2022 midterms, when Democrats gained a Senate seat even though Joe Biden’s approval was low. Some people laughed when an audience member asked whether that meant Republicans would pick up a seat too, the source said.
Iverson defended himself to Axios.
“I told attendees that I think all incumbent Republican Senators will hold their seats because we have good candidates who are well funded,” he said. “The message was for folks to keep their heads up.”
According to Axios, attendees asked why they weren’t getting a full update on each race. Some noted that the unexpectedly close Senate race in Texas never came up.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), who also spoke at the retreat, told Axios last week that Republicans face a “tough environment.” Axios also reported that the NRSC is asking donors for $9 million to help in Alaska, Iowa and Ohio, three states Trump won by double digits in 2024.
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