The authorities in Ethiopia’s Tigray region said on Wednesday that they had mobilized their forces against the federal government, signaling a severe escalation in a conflict that analysts fear will lead to another all-out war.
Tigrayan forces seized the airport in the city of Mekelle early on Wednesday as well as others in the northern region, displacing federal forces in a direct challenge to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s central government.
Tigray’s regional administration accused the federal government on Wednesday of starting an invasion, pointing to a series of recent attacks, including an assault by infantry, drones and artillery.
Tigray, which borders Eritrea and is inhabited mostly by the Tigrayan ethnic group, has played a crucial role in contemporary Ethiopian politics. Its forces led a coalition that overthrew a military government in 1991. Then its leader, Meles Zenawi, ruled the country until his death in 2012, undertaking significant reforms. During that time, Ethiopia became one of Africa’s fastest growing economies.
But hundreds of thousands of people were killed in a two-year war between the central government and Tigrayan forces that began in 2020 and drew in Eritrea on the side of Mr. Abiy, who had taken power in 2018. That conflict led to mass starvation and accusations of sexual violence.
Since then, rivalries between powers in the Persian Gulf have further unsettled the Horn of Africa, raising concerns that another conflict in Ethiopia, the second most populous country in Africa, could transform into a large-scale regional war.
“Our army, the shield for the existence and safety of its people, has been instructed to counter the attack and genocidal invasion and has entered defense operations,” Tigray’s regional administration said in a statement on Wednesday. “We call upon our army, all our people and allies in our struggle to consolidate their unity and strengthen their fight.”
The loss of the airports — critical for military advantage — was confirmed by an adviser to Mr. Abiy, Getachew Reda.
The Tigray People’s Liberation Forces also launched an offensive against government positions in the northern regions of Afar and Amhara, according to Mr. Getachaw, writing on social media.
“The T.P.L.F. politico-military leadership has obviously taken irresponsibility to new heights,” he said.
The rapid military developments follow months in which the two sides have appeared near the brink of conflict without tipping over into it. Tigray has conscripted recruits into its forces and taken control of the region’s parliament.
Over the weekend, it joined a new alliance of seven rebel groups in different parts of the country, saying they would overthrow Mr. Abiy’s government and replace it with an inclusive democracy.
One open question is the role that Eritrea and its leader, Isaias Afwerki, would play in any hostilities.
Eritrea and Ethiopia were hostile neighbors for decades until, until 2018, then joined forces in fighting in Tigray from 2020 to 2022. But since that war ended, relations between Tigrayan leaders and Mr. Isaias have warmed.
Mr. Abiy has talked recently of wanting a port on the Red Sea to facilitate trade and expand its security presence, given that Ethiopia is landlocked. Eritrea’s military would resist any Ethiopian attempt to seize its port of Assab.
This week’s events suggested the potential start of a new, full-scale war, according to experts, but it was unclear how the government in Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa, would respond and de-escalation, potentially through mediation, appeared possible.
“It looks like the declaration of full-fledged war,” said Mehari Taddele Maru of the European University Institute in Florence, who served as the African Union’s Migration program director in the late 2000s. “Everyone is preparing the ground for what is to come.”
A spokeswoman for Mr. Abiy did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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