Armed opposition groups in Ethiopia said this week that they had joined forces to topple the country’s prime minister — a further sign of instability in a country that has appeared close to war for months.
Analysts say the rebels lack the means to achieve their immediate goal of deposing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, but any return to war could be devastating for Ethiopia. Hundreds of thousands of people were killed there in two years of fighting that began in 2020, between Mr. Abiy’s government against rebels in the northwestern region of Tigray.
Since then, wars in the Middle East have further unsettled the Horn of Africa, raising concerns that a return to full-scale conflict in Ethiopia, the second most populous country in Africa, could draw Sudan and Eritrea into a regional war.
In one sign of the growing insecurity, a military drone struck a convoy carrying U.S. humanitarian aid in Tigray on Sunday, according to the Catholic Eparchy of Adigrat, which works closely with Catholic Relief Services, a U.S. charity. The authorities in Tigray have accused the government of repeatedly bombing the region with drones this year.
The convoy was taking food to people in the town of Sheraro who had been displaced by the conflict, the church said, calling for respect for its work. Nobody has claimed responsibility for the attack.
The convoy strike came the same day one rebel group, the Oromo Liberation Army, issued a joint declaration with six others, accusing Mr. Abiy of pursuing dictatorial policies. They announced a new coalition, the Alliance for Survival.
In the manner of many rebel movements, the coalition vowed to form an inclusive, democratic government once in power.
“We, the people’s forces concerned with the survival of Ethiopia’s peoples, bear the historic responsibility of overthrowing this regime,” they said the statement.
Ethiopia’s government did not immediately respond to a request for comment, but it has dismissed the alliance as nothing new.
The alliance includes the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, which fought against the government in the 2020-22 war, as well as rebel groups based in the Amhara, Ogaden and Afar regions of the country. Taken together, the groups effectively form an arc around the capital, Addis Ababa.
But Moses Okello, an analyst with the Institute for Security Studies, based in the city, said that there is little immediate threat to Mr. Abiy, who has a firm grasp on the federal government and won a resounding re-election victory in June. The groups have disparate interests and two of them are in conflict over part of western Tigray, he said.
That complexity adds to the rebel’s challenges, and also to Mr. Abiy’s.
“It makes it somewhat difficult for the federal government to put together a coherent military strategy to deal with them,” Mr. Okello said.
The announcement of the new alliance raised some alarm at the United Nations, which has gathered world leaders at its headquarters in New York this week. Secretary General António Guterres is “deeply concerned by the worsening security situation,” his spokesman, Stéphane Dujarric, said on Monday.
The drone strike came days after the Trump administration allowed sanctions on Eritrea’s military to lapse, in a move that hints at the competing geopolitical interests in the region. The sanctions were imposed by the Biden administration in 2021 because of Eritrea’s role in the war in Tigray.
But Eritrea is the subject of renewed U.S. interest because of its coastline on the Red Sea, a vital conduit for oil and global shipping. The waterway has taken on greater significance since Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz after coming under attack by the United States and Israel in February.
Several nations, among them Israel, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, have made diplomatic and investment efforts in recent years to strengthen their foothold along the Red Sea coast.
Representative Gregory W. Meeks of New York, the top Democrat on the Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a statement on Monday that the Trump administration was “turning a blind eye to a rapidly deteriorating security situation” in Tigray.
Adding to the risk of conflict is Ethiopia’s desire for a port to facilitate trade and expand its security reach. The country is landlocked and Mr. Abiy has repeatedly demanded Red Sea access. The port of Assab, in Eritrea, is just 40 miles from Ethiopia’s northern border.
Given the competing interests of the U.A.E., Egypt and Saudi Arabia in Sudan, one particularly vulnerable area is the border where Ethiopia, Eritrea and Sudan meet, according to analysts.
But the region has appeared close to full-scale conflict for around a year, without tipping into it. One factor could be mediation efforts by Nigeria’s former president, Olusegun Obasanjo, on behalf of the African Union. Saudi Arabia and Turkey have also pursued quiet diplomacy.
The war in Iran may also have helped pull Ethiopia back from the brink by prompting a steep rise in food and fuel prices, effectively raising the cost of conflict, according to Mr. Okello.
“There appears to be the understanding on both sides that war is not good for anyone,” he said.
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