President Trump’s decision to escalate a trade war with Canada is threatening to hurt Republicans in the midterm elections, with several Senate battleground states on the northern border feeling an outsize impact.
Many voters say they are upset about the trade war, including some who cast ballots for Mr. Trump in 2024 with hopes that he would bring them relief from rising prices, according to more than four dozen interviews across six states at the center of the battle for control of the Senate.
The intensifying trade conflict — touching steel, dairy, appliances, automotive parts and agricultural equipment — has forced some Republicans to play defense. Democrats have highlighted the costs of the trade fight, which has spooked financial markets and threatened to accelerate inflation driven by Mr. Trump’s unpopular war with Iran.
In Maine, Senator Susan Collins, a vulnerable Republican, has pushed Mr. Trump to de-escalate the trade war. In Michigan, the Republican nominee for Senate, Mike Rogers, has appeared to stand uneasily with Mr. Trump’s trade policy.
Nationwide, 78 percent of likely midterm voters who backed Mr. Trump in 2024 still supported his trade policies, but 19 percent oppose them, according to the latest poll from The New York Times and Siena University. The poll did not ask voters specifically about the trade war with Canada.
The impact of the trade war is felt acutely in states that are along the northern border or have heavily industrial and agricultural economies that make them reliant on trade with Canada — characteristics shared by some of the most competitive Senate battlegrounds.
In interviews in Alaska, Minnesota, Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire and Ohio, many voters who backed Mr. Trump in 2024 said they believed the president was leveling the playing field with his trade war. But others said the fight with an ally was a mistake.
“Everything is all about him.”
Candace Oxley, 80, of Kettering, Ohio. Ms. Oxley, a retiree, said that she was dismayed by the trade conflict and that Mr. Trump was preoccupied by vanity projects. His fight with Canada, she said, is not helping Americans afford groceries or gas. “I voted for him, and I wish I had not,” Ms. Oxley said. She said she was unsure how she would vote in Ohio’s competitive Senate race between Jon Husted, the Republican incumbent, and former Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat.
“Every country in the world has taken advantage of us.”
Shkelqim Doko, 65, of Sterling Heights, Mich. Mr. Doko, a bakery owner, said he supported Mr. Trump’s trade war with Canada, arguing that the president was working to get even with countries that have taken advantage of the United States. “I stand by my vote,” Mr. Doko said of his support for Mr. Trump in 2024, adding that he sees Mr. Trump as “pro-America.” Mr. Doko said he would vote for Mr. Rogers, the Republican nominee in Michigan’s high-stakes Senate race, because Mr. Rogers would support Mr. Trump’s trade policies. “If we trade,” Mr. Doko said, “we trade in balance.”
“He really wants to make America great.”
Elaine Flowers, 75, of Sterling Heights, Mich. Ms. Flowers, a retired social worker and onetime police officer, expressed hope that the trade war would have long-term benefits. “I just don’t see a good life for my grandkids if we don’t get the industries back in the United States,” Ms. Flowers said. A former Democrat, Ms. Flowers said she now identified as an independent. She said Mr. Trump was the first Republican she voted for after leaving the Democratic Party. She plans to vote for Mr. Rogers in the Senate race in Michigan, she said.
“We should really start making friends instead of enemies.”
Ben Rackliff, 53, of Jefferson, Maine. Mr. Rackliff, a contractor, said he opposed the trade war and that it had affected his business. “It’s not the presidency I voted for,” said Mr. Rackliff, adding that the president was taking his tariffs “to an extreme.” Still, Mr. Rackliff said he planned to vote for Ms. Collins, a moderate Republican, over the Democratic nominee, Troy Jackson, a former State Senate president. “Whether she’s a RINO or whatever they want to call her, she is present, she does go to the votes,” Mr. Rackliff, using an acronym for Republican in name only, said of Ms. Collins. “She does, for the most part, represent Maine.”
“It’s just childish.”
Jonathon Stevens, 24, of Grafton, N.H. Mr. Stevens, a carpenter, said he had voted for Mr. Trump because of his tax policies and what he believed was Mr. Trump’s “blue-collar” approach. But Mr. Stevens said that he was dismayed by Mr. Trump’s trade war with Canada, and that he missed former President Barack Obama’s “professionalism.” The United States and Canada are “too close” to be on bad terms, said Mr. Stevens, who considers himself a political independent. He is uncertain who he will vote for in the midterms, he said, but he is leaning toward supporting Representative Chris Pappas, a Democrat, in the Senate race in New Hampshire.
“I mean, eye for an eye.”
Stephen Tolan, 63, of Anchorage. Mr. Tolan, a surveyor, said that while the trade war had costs, he ultimately felt Mr. Trump had to ratchet up the tariffs on Canada. “I believe Canada’s been overcharging us for years,” Mr. Tolan said. He added: “Canada’s been living under our umbrella for 250 years. They need to pay up.” Mr. Tolan said he was supporting Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska because the incumbent “backs up Trump.” Mr. Sullivan faces a stiff midterm challenge from former Representative Mary Peltola, a Democrat.
“Predictability matters.”
Bennett Coughlan, 34, of Mankato, Minn. Mr. Coughlan, who owns a coffee shop, said that he was generally skeptical of government interference in trade, but that he could accept the use of tariffs with a “clear objective and a way to get back to a stable trading relationship.” The trade war with Canada does not seem to fit that description, he said. “You need some confidence that the rules won’t change overnight,” Mr. Coughlan said, questioning whether the United States should “alienate our allies.” Still, Mr. Coughlan said he did not regret voting for Mr. Trump in 2024, suggesting he did not have a good alternative. And he said he was unsure how he would vote in the Senate race in Minnesota, which pits Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a Democrat, against the former N.F.L. sideline reporter Michele Tafoya, a Republican.
Kevin Williams in Ohio, Olivia Gieger in New Hampshire, Julia O’Malley in Alaska, Robb Murray in Minnesota and Murray Carpenter in Maine contributed reporting.
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