Democrats have gained a surprising advantage over Republicans on the economy and other financial concerns in competitive House districts likely to determine control of Congress, according to new polling.
Voters in those districts report trusting Democrats more to handle the economy, inflation, gas prices, international trade and corruption, the Cook Political Report found. Immigration was the only major issue included in the comparison that Republicans maintained an advantage.
“Trump and Republicans are underwater on nearly every issue,” pollster Lindsay Vermeyen of New River Strategies said.
Democrats led Republicans by seven points on the economy, eight on inflation, 12 on lowering gas prices and nine on trade and tariffs. Cook said Thursday the voters surveyed showed “more trust in Democrats’ ability to manage almost every key issue facing the electorate today.”
The poll covered 37 districts rated as toss-ups or leaning toward either party. Although President Donald Trump carried those districts by an average of five points in 2024, Democrats now lead the generic congressional ballot there 49% to 47%.
“In other words, a district that Trump carried by five points in 2024 would have a Democratic advantage of two points today — a seven-point swing in Democrats’ favor,” according to Cook.
Trump’s approval rating in the districts polled was also 16 points underwater, with 42% approving and 58% disapproving.
But, according to Vermeyen, the findings don’t necessarily reflect growing enthusiasm for Democrats.
“This continues to look more like frustration with the GOP than newfound enthusiasm for Democrats,” she said. “When voters choose between a proactive Democratic agenda focused on lowering costs and raising incomes and a reactive one focused on stopping Trump’s policies, they prefer the proactive approach by 9 points — with an even larger gap among Republicans.”
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