The A.I. issue is moving fast. Just a few months ago, it barely registered on the political scale. Now A.I. data centers and, more recently, A.I. safety are taking center stage in campaigns and in Washington, with members of both parties debating whether and how the technology should be regulated.
But as important as artificial intelligence may soon become, the latest New York Times/Siena poll suggests that A.I. is not poised to be one of the most important issues in this year’s midterm elections. For now, it might best be compared to the many issues that earn the passionate support of small interest groups — like, say, climate change — but that don’t do much to shape national electoral outcomes.
The most straightforward interpretation of the poll is that the issue is not quite ripe for national party politics: Voters, politicians and the parties are still figuring out what they think and where they stand. Until they do, the issue can’t quite be as important in politics as it might seem to warrant.
It’s important to emphasize that the landscape is changing rapidly. Even over just the last 10 days or so since the Times/Siena poll questionnaire was finalized, concerns over A.I. security have erupted into a major policy issue with the potential to become a political football. As they say, polls are merely “snapshots” in time. The story has probably already shifted since the poll was conducted; this newsletter might seem out of date by the time the election comes around.
And even if A.I. isn’t a top-tier national issue today, it still has the potential to matter in individual races, perhaps especially down-ballot in areas where A.I., and specifically data center construction, has become a meaningful local issue. Over the medium-to-long term, A.I. could bring sweeping economic changes with enormous political repercussions across the developed world.
Nonetheless, the poll found relatively little evidence that A.I. was affecting the race for Congress. One straightforward finding: Less than 1 percent of voters (11 people out of more than 1,500) said that A.I. or data centers were the most important issue in deciding their vote. It’s a small number but not meaningless, and “most important” is a high bar. But that puts A.I. alongside a very long list of second-tier issues like education and gun policy, not the issues defining the national campaign like the economy or immigration.
Another, more subtle sign that the issue hasn’t broken through with voters is that they preferred Republicans over Democrats to handle A.I. and data center issues by just two points, 42 percent to 40 percent. This finding might be a little confusing, as the poll found that voters oppose data centers, and Democrats have tended to be more opposed to A.I. But in this particular case the G.O.P.’s lead is not in itself the interesting takeaway.
The most important part of the finding is that only 82 percent of voters had an opinion of which party would do better. In today’s polarized country, that’s a pretty low number — you can get 80 percent of people to say whether they better trust Democrats or Republicans to cook them breakfast. In comparison, 97 percent had an opinion on which party they would prefer on immigration.
That relatively high degree of uncertainty holds true even among those who are “almost certain” to vote or who regularly vote in primary elections.
For one reason or another, voters just don’t quite know what to do with this issue yet, whether that’s because they’re not sure of their own stance or they’re not sure of the parties’ stances. Both explanations almost certainly play a role. Either way, a midterm campaign — with hundreds of congressional races, each with its own messages and issues — isn’t usually the best setting for elevating a new issue to national prominence.
You can read our full story on the poll and A.I., including the public’s opposition to data centers, here.
The post The Subtle Sign That A.I. Is Not Yet a National Political Issue appeared first on New York Times.
