The European Union’s invitation Wednesday for Canada to become an “associate member” of the bloc shows just how intent these traditional United States allies are on pursuing a more stable future by binding closer together.
“We must urgently reimagine our partnerships,” Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said in the European Parliament in Strasbourg, a beaming Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada sitting just to her side. But there are no guarantees they will get there.
While details of what this relationship might look like remain scant, Ms. von der Leyen noted some potential areas of cooperation, including partnerships in manufacturing, technology, defense, energy policy and economic security.
This would not be “a partnership against anyone else,” she insisted, “but for our common strength.”
European officials said that, in the lead-up to the speech on Wednesday, the bloc wanted to ensure that President Trump did not see this new partnership with Canada as an anti-American move.
Still, if it isn’t precisely against the United States, then it’s unmistakably about it.
“Behind this is a desire to hedge against what for both partners is an increasingly fraught relationship with the United States,” said Ian Lesser, a distinguished fellow of the German Marshall Fund, based in Brussels.
“But it’s not just that it’s fraught,” he added. “It’s the most important geoeconomic and geopolitical relationship for both Europe and for Canada.”
Symbolism matters
For Mr. Carney, the invitation is both timely and symbolically important. He has decided to stand up to Mr. Trump, who has imposed tariffs on Canada and regularly threatens its sovereignty.
Mr. Carney has been pushing for Canada to get greater access to the European Union — its territory, its market, its funds and programs — without becoming a full member of the bloc.
He has found an enthusiastic partner in Ms. von der Leyen, who has painted Canada as a dependable source for Europe’s needs for energy and critical raw materials, as well as a steadfast ally who shares NATO membership, support for Ukraine and a commitment to the rule of law. Ms. von der Leyen does not represent the European Union’s 27 countries, but she sets the agenda for the bloc and commands its mighty bureaucracy.
The tie-up seems to make sense at a moment of global turbulence and a shifting global role for the United States. Between them, the European Union’s 27 members and Canada have more than 490 million citizens and include four of the world’s 10 largest economies.
What’s in a name?
The European Union is underpinned by dense, deep legal and procedural rules, built over decades by a group of nations that ceded sovereignty to one another, and to an unelected executive branch in Brussels.
Inserting a country an ocean away deeper into this web is not a straightforward business.
The label the European Union wants to confer on Canada, “associate member,” is not an existing type of partnership — meaning that it is not clear what actions Canada would have to take to earn it, or for it to be given.
“It has no legal basis,” said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at the Eurasia Group. “It’s more symbolism and signal,” he added.
Ms. von der Leyen was taking a risk using the term, which had been floating for weeks ahead of her speech, and drew consternation from several member states, according to European officials.
It is seen as vague, untethered from legal frameworks and potentially antagonistic toward countries that already have detailed legal agreements with the European Union. These range from candidate nations such as Albania to close partners including Britain, Switzerland and Norway. Those countries have deep trade ties to the bloc and, in the case of Switzerland and Norway, have free movement into and out of other European nations.
Some Canadian officials do not appear to love the term, either, as membership in the European Union implies forfeiting some sovereignty, which is the opposite of what Mr. Carney has pledged to do. The Conservative opposition leader seized on the term, arguing that if Canada was never to be the 51st state of the United States, it should also not become the 28th member state of the European Union.
“There’s a lot of good will, but once one starts to look just a little bit closer, one also finds that many Europeans really don’t know Canada all that well, and they maybe aren’t fully taking on board Canada’s own sensitivities to sovereignty,” said Mr. Lesser.
Hours after Ms. von der Leyen spoke on Wednesday, the incoming Canadian ambassador to the European Union said that labels did not matter — but suggested that Canada preferred “alliance for the future” to describe the emerging new bond with the European Union. That phrase also appeared in Ms. von der Leyen’s speech.
“I think we’re still a ways away from actually landing on what we think the best way to describe it is,” said Jonathan Wilkinson.
Three European diplomats said that the title “associate member” may not stick.
Old World problems?
Officials from both sides are working to find tangible progress that they hope to announce at a European Union-Canada summit scheduled to take place in Montreal at the end of October.
Two officials, one from the European Union and one from Canada, with knowledge of the talks, said that officials were trying hard to reach that goal, but that work had been slow and difficult, in part because it is highly technical.
Just how hard it can be to get the European Union to agree on anything has been displayed frequently over the years. For example, talks over a trade agreement with Mercosur, the South American bloc, lasted a quarter century.
Canada has its own experience with these E.U. rigidities — and has some of its own. Its free-trade agreement with the bloc, in effect in practice for a decade, has still not been ratified by 10 of the 27 member states, for various reasons.
Canada already participates in a handful of E.U. ventures, including Horizon, a technology and innovation research effort, and SAFE, a defense industrial program. It had to pay $100 million to participate in Horizon, and participation in other E.U. programs are also likely to require Canada to pay into a budget.
Big ideas
One more immediate benefit for Canada from closer ties to Europe may be in securing funding from the European Investment Bank. The major development bank, which is owned by the E.U. member states and has more than $630 billion in assets, is eager and ready to invest in Canadian projects, particularly in critical raw materials, and its leader is heading to Ottawa on Sunday to advance talks with the Canadian government.
The bank is ready to start work in Canada, a European official with knowledge of the preparations said, but needed Ottawa to approve certain administrative formalities such as allowing E.U. diplomats to work there.
Some of the ideas being discussed ahead of the October summit show the ambitious scope of the Canada-E.U. future relationship.
For example, officials said, Mr. Carney wants the bloc to work with Canada to build systems for payments and cloud computing that will offer an alternative to those of the United States in a bid to secure sovereignty.
Discussions have also been underway on a digital trade agreement, which could deepen cooperation on cybersecurity and regulatory cooperation.
Talks are more advanced to bring Canadian regulations in line with European ones in energy, including the monitoring, reporting and evaluation system used by the bloc to track methane emissions from vessels fueled by liquefied natural gas, as well as gas imports entering the European Union market. This is a necessity if Canada is going to export gas to the European Union.
Another area where Canada is particularly eager to see movement is the ability of its citizens to spend longer stretches of time in the European Union visa-free, have their professional qualifications recognized there and be able to study in European universities.
Because these policy areas hinge on complex and politically fraught immigration rules, major breakthroughs could be difficult. Additionally, any agreement improving Canadians’ access to Europe would require reciprocity, meaning that it would grant the same access to Canada for 450 million Europeans.
Some European diplomats have suggested that Erasmus — Europe’s popular student exchange program — could be an easier starting place for collaboration.
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