The true measure of a sailor is how they weather a storm, and swing district Republicans can make out the threatening clouds fast approaching over the horizon.
Detractors have dubbed the GOP’s first-ever midterm convention a celebratory “Trump-a-palooza.”
It’s a charge that its organizers didn’t dodge on Wednesday night, when the president took the stage in an arena adorned with photographs of him to deliver an address in which he offered Americans a $5,000 “Trump Dividend” in exchange for returning Republican majorities to Congress.
But its office-holding attendees are clear-eyed about the challenge ahead.
Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) is seeking a third term in the Empire State’s 17th Congressional District, a true “toss-up” according to the Cook Political Report.
Two years ago, he defeated his Democratic opponent by more than five points even as Kamala Harris eked out a win among his constituents.
But that was in a year that saw Trump returned to the White House and Republicans prevail up and down the ballot.
The state of play, as of this week, is that Democrats boast a nearly seven-point advantage in the generic ballot, and are favored in almost every competitive Senate race.
Lawler is well aware of the daunting environment he’ll have to navigate.
“Midterm elections obviously tend to favor the party out of power because anger is a great motivator, and we’ve seen the Democratic base is very angry,” Lawler told The Post.
The other complicating factor? While Lawler is many of his Democratic colleagues’ favorite Republican, Minority Leaders Jeffries and Schumer share none of that same affinity for him — quite the opposite, in fact.
Which means leadership-controlled campaign arms like the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and House Majority PAC are poised to throw the kitchen sink at him.
But while both the president and Democrats are determined to turn November into a referendum on Trump, the congressman is determined to run his own race.
“Look, at the end of the day, this is not about President Trump,” he said.
“In a district like mine, the choice is between me and my opponent, Cait Conley, who supports open borders, who supports sanctuary state policies, who supports increasing taxes by $4 trillion.”
Lawler also stressed what a GOP-controlled Congress would actually try to do with two more years in power.
“We need to pass permitting reform and actually increase domestic production of energy — including in New York,” he argued.
“We need to tackle health care costs in this country. Insurance premiums are up 150% since Obamacare took effect. We need to work to continue to drive down overall costs and bring down inflation; it’s down to 3.4% from Joe Biden’s high of 9%.”
Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas), who represents what she described as “the most Hispanic Republican district in the entire nation,” is running a much different race against a much different opponent, yet sees things similarly.
“I don’t want to be distracted, and will not be distracted by things that are happening on the national scale,” she vowed after being asked about the decision to either run away from or run hand-in-hand with Trump.
“I’m going to remain laser-focused on what’s important to my community: That’s affordability, that is protecting Social Security and Medicare.”
De La Cruz has a particularly tough task ahead of her, given the demographics of her district and Latinos’ dramatic swing back toward the Democrats.
A Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision survey of 1,500 registered Latino voters living in 17 swing House districts found that Democrats led among the group on the generic congressional ballot, 58%-35%.
It’s a reality the congresswoman acknowledged and attributed to concerns over both affordability and immigration.
“Look, we inherited higher prices from the previous administration. We also inherited chaos at the border,” she submitted.
“What the people of South Texas have seen me do is talk to [Republican] leadership and be very clear where enforcement needs to be: Enforcement needs to remain on the cartel and the criminals, not hardworking individuals navigating the immigration process.”
“The people of South Texas appreciate my work and the fact that they have a seat at the table when it comes to this topic,” concluded De La Cruz.
It doesn’t hurt that her opponent, Tejano music star Bobby Pulido, has an oversized U-Haul full of baggage following him around the campaign trail (“I have a record of results, my opponent has a record of scandals,” quipped the congresswoman).
If there’s a through-line — one that gets lost in the ever-nationalized coverage of the midterms — it’s that every contest is its own, a choice not between red or blue, embracing or rejecting Trump, but between two particular candidates, each with their own unique warts and virtues.
Those Republicans who treat it as such stand a chance of holding on.
Those who don’t ought to expect to be swept away by the gathering storm.
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