John R. Bolton was the White House national security adviser from 2018 to 2019.
Conventional wisdom holds that negotiations to resolve international conflicts are always useful. The media, encouraged by negotiators themselves, often reinforces this view, noting that talks are progressing, referring to their quickening pace or intensifying efforts and the anticipation of further meetings. Feckless diplomacy, however, can do more harm than good. Fate can also take a hand, with unforeseen developments bolstering one combatant’s negotiating position.
Unfortunately, the latter scenario may be unfolding in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Recent visits to Moscow and Kyiv by Trump administration envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner carried the whiff of desperation, despite the usual media flurry. Their previous efforts on Ukraine failed earlier this year, just before the Iran war perhaps diverted their attention.
While Witkoff and Kushner met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday, voters in Germany’s eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday were giving the Alternative for Germany party the largest electoral triumph in its short history. The AfD, which opposes assisting Ukraine militarily, is frequently characterized as pro-Russian, anti-NATO and even anti-American. Its Saxony-Anhalt win could have major repercussions in national German politics, presaging similar consequences in France’s presidential elections next year, on a continent woefully short of strong and effective international statesmen.
This convergence could bolster Putin’s confidence that he still holds political sway over President Donald Trump and that the European Union is faltering as the conflict approaches a potentially long winter of destruction on the battlefield and deep inside Ukraine and Russia.
Witkoff said he heard “new ideas” from Russia but didn’t say what they were. He and Kushner said the talks were “substantive” but didn’t say why. Putin was surely pleased to hear Witkoff remark that after he retired, he would have “all these incredible stories and incredible memories, and yours will be right at the top of it all.”
Witkoff said the United States brought “important cogent ideas” to Kyiv — his and Kushner’s first official visit — most importantly, that Ukraine needed to make “compromises.” After meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Witkoff said he was “confident that there’ll be a good resolution here.” Zelensky said simply, “The war will continue.”
Less optimistic media, however, reported that Trump’s representatives simply brought “updated versions of earlier documents” and “few new ideas,” and were “seeking to revive earlier proposals.” Putin apparently stressed, as he has publicly and privately for four-plus years, that the “root causes” of the war had to be addressed. To Putin, “root causes” mean complete Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and stopping further Westward drift by Kyiv, including any effort to join NATO. No wonder Zelensky concluded the war would go on.
What all this diplomatic evidence says to Putin is that Trump still thinks they are friends; so why compromise now? The Kremlin knows full well that Trump believes affairs between nations are reflected in their leaders’ personal relations, repeatedly boasting of his rapport with authoritarian figures including Putin, China’s Xi Jinping and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. Putin doesn’t buy any of this, but he is prepared to exploit Trump’s simplistic view to Russia’s advantage.
It is worse than ironic that Trump’s misapprehensions about international relations require him to downplay threatening or objectionable Kremlin behavior, lest it appear he is losing his golden touch. Europe faces increasing Russian hybrid warfare, with missiles and drones striking Poland, Romania and the Baltic republics. Most recently, a weaponized drone that authorities have attributed to Russia appeared at the Leipzig airport in Germany. Trump, meanwhile, professes no concern. He said recently of Putin: “I speak to him. I know him very well. Putin is not looking to attack NATO territory.” Of course, every time Putin hears such words, it reinforces his view, correct or incorrect as it may be, that he has Trump right where he wants him, thus further diminishing prospects for serious negotiations, let alone peace.
Into these unhappy circumstances crashes Saxony-Anhalt. Trump couldn’t contain his glee, quickly posting the results on Truth Social. Additional German elections will be held Sept. 20, and the political implications for Chancellor Friedrich Merz are enormous. He was already in trouble before the Saxony-Anhalt election, prompting talk of a Kanzlertausch, or “chancellor swap,” in the European Union’s pivotal member.
Beyond Germany, Britain just experienced its own Kanzlertausch, getting a new prime minister untested in international affairs. Russia-leaning Marine Le Pen could win France’s 2027 presidential race. There are also claims that Russia is trying to influence Sweden’s national elections next Sunday. The general absence of strong European leaders means Putin has little to fear from that quarter as key governments risk sliding in a pro-Moscow direction.
NATO’s imperative must therefore be accelerating assistance to Ukraine now in order to render Russia’s winter offensive as futile as its prior efforts. Beyond that, Ukrainian resolve is all that will restrain Moscow, until some new leader from Washington or Europe emerges to galvanize the West. Putin knows that, too.
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