These are the most important House races to watch in November

Control of the U.S. House next Congress is on the line in the November midterms. Democrats only need to flip a handful of seats to win the majority: Republicans currently have 219 seats (including one independent who caucuses with them) to Democrats’ 214.

But off-cycle redistricting, scandals and an unusually high number of retirements have made this a curious election cycle, upending competitive races nationwide while also putting once-safe blue or red districts into play. Democrats are favored, but Republicans still have several viable paths to maintain control of the chamber.

To understand the battle for the House, here are some key themes and races to watch. We highlight all the districts rated as competitive by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, as well as several others we think could be surprising or are worth watching.

The open seats

More House Republicans than usual have chosen not to seek reelection this year, opting instead to retire or run for other offices — and leaving behind open seats that Democrats see as key flip opportunities. Incumbency usually provides an advantage in campaigns.

Competitive after Republicans sought higher office

After Reps. John James of Michigan’s 10th District and David Schweikert of Arizona’s 1st District gave up their seats to run for governor, Cook classified the races to succeed them as toss-ups. Democrat Amish Shah faces Republican Jay Feely in the Arizona race, while Democrat Christina Hines faces Republican Michael Bouchard in the Michigan race. In Iowa’s 2nd District, Republican Joe Mitchell is narrowly favored to beat Democrat Lindsay James for the seat vacated by Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is running for Senate.

Post-redistricting pickup opportunities

Following an onslaught of mid-decade redistricting nationwide, some members of Congress chose to not run for reelection in their districts, leaving their party without an incumbency advantage. Rep. Lois Frankel (D-Florida) decided to run in another district after the 22nd District she represents was redrawn to favor Republicans, leaving Democrat Pia Dandiya and Republican Casey Askar vying for her seat. Rep. Darrell Issa (R-California) decided to retire from Congress after the 48th District he represents was redrawn to favor Democrats, leaving Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond competing for the seat.

Some vacancies may help Republicans

Replacing scandal-tainted incumbents could help Republicans hold two seats. Florida’s 7th District went from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” as incumbent Rep. Cory Mills faced scandals, including sexual misconduct allegations. But he lost his primary to Ryan Elijah, who faces Democrat Bale Dalton. Rep. Chuck Edwards also suspended his reelection campaign for North Carolina’s 11th District after a House investigation found he engaged in “persistent unprofessional and inappropriate conduct” toward two female staffers. Republicans replaced him with Jennifer Balkcom, a state lawmaker, to face farmer Jamie Ager.

Scandal-tainted races

These races will test how much controversy matters to voters in a year that has seen no shortage of scandal in the House.

Texas District 28: Tano Tijerina (R) vs. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D)

Cuellar, one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, was indicted in 2024 on federal bribery and money-laundering charges and still won reelection by five percentage points. He and his wife denied wrongdoing and President Donald Trump pardoned him in 2025. His district still leans Democrat, but it was redrawn in 2025 to be more competitive for Republicans.

Ohio District 7: Rep. Max Miller (R) vs. Brian Poindexter (D)

Miller has been accused by his ex-wife of domestic abuse, which he denies, and is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee. Both Ohio Republican senators — including Bernie Moreno, the father of Miller’s ex-wife — have called for Miller to step aside in a district that’s normally a GOP stronghold.

New Jersey District 7: Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R) vs. Rebecca Bennett (D)

Kean, who was elected in 2022, was criticized for his lack of transparency when he stopped showing up to House votes for four months this spring and gave little explanation. When he returned to the House in June, the congressman revealed he had sought treatment for depression.

Redistricting backfire

Partisan redistricting in states like Texas, Alabama, Florida, North Carolina and California may backfire or not be enough to combat other forces in some races. Election forecasters have found some districts drawn to favor the GOP are more competitive than expected in a favorable environment for Democrats.

Potential Texas Latino rebellion

Recently redrawn districts in Texas will test whether the Latino electorate that shifted right in 2024 will swing back toward Democrats. Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R) faces popular Mexican American musician Bobby Pulido in a 15th District redrawn to be slightly less red and siphon Republican voters elsewhere. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D) is now running in the 34th District that Trump would have won by 10 points in 2024.

Targeted Florida Democrats still stand a shot

Florida Democratic Reps. Kathy Castor and Jared Moskowitz remain competitive running in new districts, even though Republicans drew their formerly Democratic-friendly seats into districts that Trump would’ve won by nine and 11 points in 2024, respectively. Castor faces Mike Beltran in the 14th District and Moskowitz faces Scott Singer in the 25th District.

California District 6: Rep. Kevin Kiley (I) vs. Richard Pan (D)

Kiley is attempting to remain in Congress by dropping his Republican affiliation and running as an independent, although he still caucuses with the GOP. Cook rates this race as “solidly Democratic.”

California District 13: Kevin Lincoln (R) vs Rep. Adam Gray (D)

California redrew the district to become more favorable to the incumbent Democrat, partly turning the seat from “toss up” to “lean Democrat.” But Republicans hope recruiting Lincoln, a former mayor with ties to the district, will flip the seat.

Alabama District 2: Rhett Marques (R) vs Rep. Shomari Figures (D)

The Supreme Court decision that weakened a key section of the Voting Rights Act made it easier for Alabama to eliminate the state’s second majority-Black district, which Figures won in 2024. Democrats are still hopeful that Figures can keep his job if Black voter turnout surges in protest of redistricting.

North Carolina District 1: Laurie Buckhout (R) vs Rep. Don Davis (D)

North Carolina Republicans redrew Davis’s district to become more GOP-friendly, reducing the voting-age Black population from about 40 percent to 32 percent. He hopes to overcome redistricting with a moderate voting record and relationships in the new coastal parts of his district.

Republicans in Harris country

Some of the easiest pickup opportunities for Democrats should be GOP-held seats carried by Kamala Harris in 2024. But each race is complicated by different factors.

Nebraska District 2: Brinker Harding (R) vs. Denise Powell (D)

This is the most likely seat to flip because Rep. Don Bacon (R), a longtime incumbent, is not seeking reelection in this district Harris won by about five percentage points. Powell has outraised Harding.

New York District 17: Rep. Mike Lawler (R) vs. Cait Conley (D)

Lawler, a moderate Republican, has campaigned with Trump despite representing a district Harris won by less than a point. Democrats got their preferred candidate in Conley, an Army veteran who led federal election security efforts during the 2024 election.

Pennsylvania District 1: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) vs. Bob Harvie (D)

Fitzpatrick, a moderate Republican, is seen as a strong candidate to hold a district Harris narrowly won, because he consistently outperforms Republicans and has the support of traditionally Democratic labor unions. But Democrats are bullish that Harvie, a county commissioner, could flip it in an anti-GOP year.

Democrats in Trump country

Democrats are defending a host of seats that Trump won in the most recent presidential election. While several Democratic lawmakers survived only narrowly in 2024, the group is better positioned in a year expected to be more favorable to their party and where Trump has low approval ratings.

Nellie Pou of New Jersey and Kristen McDonald Rivet of Michigan are considered likely to be reelected in districts that voted narrowly for Trump. Others are just slightly favored: Greg Landsman of Ohio, Tom Suozzi of New York, Gabe Vasquez of New Mexico and Susie Lee of Nevada. Laura Gillen of New York is slightly favored in a Long Island district that Harris won by roughly one percentage point. These Democrats in Trump country are the most vulnerable:

Ohio District 9: Derek Merrin (R) vs. Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D)

Surviving a partisan gerrymander is nothing new to the longest-serving woman in congressional history. Over the course of her career, Kaptur did it no fewer than five times, including in 2024 when Trump won her district by 11 points. This year, the lines have been drawn to make it even tougher for Kaptur.

Washington District 3: John Braun (R) vs. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)

Gluesenkamp Perez, who has voted with Republicans at times, won by a comfortable margin in 2024 against a hard-line GOP challenger even as Trump won the district by about three percentage points. But this time, she’s up against a more moderate Republican state senator.

The progressive test

Most progressive Democrats, as well as candidates aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America, are running this year in safely Democratic districts. Some progressive candidates, however, are running in crucial swing seats, testing their theory that populist economic policies can win in competitive races.

Maine District 2: Paul LePage (R) vs. Matt Dunlap (D)

Moderate Rep. Jared Golden (D) is retiring from one of the reddest, Democratic-held districts, which Trump won by nearly 10 points in 2024. Dunlap, the progressive state auditor, defeated an establishment-backed Democrat in the primary to face LePage, a former two-term governor.

California District 22: Rep. David G. Valadao (R) vs. Randy Villegas (D)

Valadao has repeatedly won in California after distancing himself from Trump, though he lost the seat for one term after the 2018 blue wave. Villegas, a progressive Democrat, defeated a more moderate candidate backed by House Democrats’ campaign arm in the primary.

Colorado District 8: Rep. Gabe Evans (R) vs. Manny Rutinel (D)

Evans, a moderate Republican, will face Rutinel, a progressive state lawmaker and former animal rights activist who defeated a more moderate Democrat in the primary. Rutinel has moved to the middle on some issues, including health care and fracking.

Michigan District 7: Rep. Tom Barrett (R) vs. William Lawrence (D)

Lawrence, a progressive activist who co-founded the Sunrise Movement and beat more moderate Democrats in the primary, offended Black politicians by accusing them in 2024 of being “a pillar, frankly, for establishment, capitalist, imperialist American power.” Lawrence, who is White, said on X that his words were “clumsy” but taken out of context and that he was talking about anti-war politics within the Black community.

California District 7: Rep. Doris Matsui (D) vs. Mai Vang (D)

Matsui, who has held office since 2005, faces a challenge from the left from Vang — a Sacramento City Council member backed by the local branch of the Democratic Socialists of America. Vang is also 40 years younger.

Hard-right test

These hard-right incumbents are fighting to defend their seats from moderates. Their candidacies test whether Republicans will be punished for running too far-right or can turn out MAGA voters to win.

Pennsylvania District 10: Rep. Scott Perry (R) vs. Janelle Stelson (D)

Perry, a former Freedom Caucus chair, played a prominent role in Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results. Stelson is a former television news anchor who almost beat him in 2024.

Wisconsin District 3: Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R) vs. Rebecca Cooke (D)

Van Orden, a retired Navy SEAL, has faced scrutiny over his presence outside the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and baseless comments after the shootings of Democratic Minnesota lawmakers last year. Cooke is a small-business owner who came within three points of victory in 2024.

Alaska At-Large: Rep. Nick Begich (R) vs. Bill Hill (I)

Begich is one of the most conservative federal lawmakers in a state with eclectic politics that often elects moderates. Democrats have lined up behind a centrist independent as the best shot at beating him.

Arizona District 2: Rep. Elijah Crane (R) vs. Jonathan Nez (D)

Crane, another former Navy SEAL, has drawn attention for erasing references to Trump from his campaign website. Nez is former president of the Navajo Nation and has strong ties to the district’s substantial Native American population.

Traditional GOP incumbents

These four Republicans have held onto their districts as generally mainstream conservatives who usually vote with their party. They, at times, have overperformed Trump or surprisingly beaten the odds.

Iowa District 1: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) vs. Christina Bohannan (D)

Miller-Meeks is facing the same Democratic challenger for the third time in a row, after winning by only 799 votes in 2024 in a district that includes the more liberal Iowa City and parts of the University of Iowa area.

Pennsylvania District 7: Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R) vs. Bob Brooks (D)

Mackenzie is one of the most vulnerable Republicans this cycle, running in a district Trump won by about three percentage points in 2024 but that he only won by one point. Democrats have embraced Brooks, a former firefighter union leader, as ideal to win over White working-class Trump voters.

Virginia District 1: Rep. Rob Wittman (R) vs. Shannon Taylor (D)

Wittman usually wins reelection comfortably, but the race is considered more competitive this year after Trump only won the district by five percentage points in 2024 and the Democratic gubernatorial candidate won it by two points last year. The Richmond suburbs in the district have rapidly trended blue.

Michigan 4th District: Rep. Bill Huizenga (R) vs. Sean McCann (D)

Huizenga overperformed Trump in 2024 by six points, making him one of the rare Republicans more popular than the president. Still, Democrats see this as a pickup opportunity given the state’s shift to the left.

Moderate GOP incumbents

These are relatively moderate Republicans defending their seats, testing whether moving to the center and occasionally bucking their party, while staying conservative on some issues, could win over left-leaning and independent voters.

Arizona District 6: Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R) vs JoAnna Mendoza (D)

Ciscomani narrowly won his 2024 race in this heavily Hispanic Arizona district near the U.S.-Mexico border. He supported pathways to legal status for people brought to the U.S. illegally as children.

Pennsylvania District 8: Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R) vs. Paige Cognetti (D)

Bresnahan is defending his Scranton-area seat after narrowly beating a longtime Democratic incumbent in 2024. He has tried to establish a bipartisan reputation with work on infrastructure and agricultural issues.

Iowa District 3: Rep. Zach Nunn (R) vs. Sarah Trone Garriott (D)

Nunn isn’t part of the Problem Solvers Caucus that many Republicans join to signal they are moderate, but he has been ranked among the most bipartisan members of Congress and was the only Iowa Republican to vote to extend enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies.

Virginia District 2: Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) vs. Elaine Luria (D)

Kiggans is in a rematch against the former two-term Democratic representative she ousted in 2022. She is considered one of the most vulnerable incumbents in a district Trump won in 2024 by just 0.27 points. Last year, Kiggans advanced a bipartisan plan to expand ACA enhanced subsidies.

Ben Binday, Dan Merica and Karen Tumulty contributed to this report.

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