When the war with Iran began, officials at the Federal Reserve shied away from providing detailed forecasts about how the economy might be affected in all but one dimension. What they acknowledged, aside from the vast uncertainty, was that the longer the war lasted, the bigger the fallout would be.
Six months later, with no end to the conflict in sight, policymakers at the central bank are contending with the mounting consequences.
Growth has held up surprisingly well, a resilience that has continued to defy economists’ expectations. But elevated inflation has created a conundrum for the Fed, prompting officials to consider raising rates at their next meeting on Sept. 15-16 if price pressures do not continue to ease as they have over the summer.
Christopher J. Waller, a central bank governor, on Thursday struck an upbeat tone about the trajectory of inflation despite it overshooting the Fed’s 2 percent target for more than five years. The central bank, he said, was “finally seeing some signs of disinflation.”
Still, Mr. Waller, like other policymakers recently, said he was putting significant weight on forthcoming data releases, most notably August’s Consumer Price Index report to be released on Sept. 11, in deciding whether to support a rate rise later this month.
“If there is continued progress toward our 2 percent goal, then I am willing to support holding the policy rate at its current level,” Mr. Waller said of the August data. “But if inflation comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike.”
He added: “I judge that policy is currently only slightly restricting aggregate demand, and it may not take much acceleration in inflation to nudge me into supporting tighter policy. If there is evidence that progress toward 2 percent inflation reversed in August, a small adjustment in our stance would help ensure that it resumes.”
Mr. Waller’s comments are among the last from top officials ahead of a communications blackout before the next meeting.
Kevin M. Warsh, the Fed chairman, indicated in a speech last week at the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson, Wyo., that the central bank would have “work to do” if underlying inflation was not moving down “clearly and at sufficient speed.”
He also downplayed recent evidence over the summer that showed slightly less acute price pressures. “They do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved,” he said. Moreover, he suggested that with the labor market “quite stable” and inflation running above target, “the Fed’s predominant focus right now should be on prices.”
Mr. Warsh stopped short of endorsing a rate increase if the data do not comply, in keeping with his opposition to providing guidance about what the Fed might do next. But his colleagues have been more direct about their thinking.
Earlier this week, two top officials conveyed a different sense of urgency around raising rates.
Michael S. Barr, a Fed governor, expressed concern about “broader price pressures taking hold” and said that if inflation did not soon ease, he would support the Fed taking action.
“If trends in the data give me some confidence that inflation is moderating on a path to 2 percent, then I think we can take a bit more time to assess our policy stance,” Mr. Barr said in speech in Washington on Tuesday. “However, if inflation appears not to be moderating sufficiently, then I think we should act decisively to raise rates.”
A day later, John C. Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, indicated that it was still an open question whether a rate increase was necessary later this month. He emphasized that much of what had lifted inflation were temporary factors, such as tariffs, whose impact is starting to fade.
“There’s no clear signs right now whether monetary policy currently is sufficient to make sure we bring inflation back to target in the next year or two, or whether you need to see further action to do that,” Mr. Wiliams, who is the vice chair of the policy-setting committee, said in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday.
The post Rate Rise in Play as Fed Officials Await Inflation Data appeared first on New York Times.
