Senator Ed Markey has seen his lead steadily increase in recent polls of the Democratic primary for Senate in Massachusetts, with a large number of undecided voters appearing to swing toward him in the lead-up to Tuesday’s election.
In his attempt to secure a third full term in the Senate, Mr. Markey, 80, is being challenged by Seth Moulton, a moderate Democrat who is more than 30 years his junior. With a focus on their age gap, and the concept of “generational change,” Mr. Moulton got close in several polls this spring. That turned around in August, with Mr. Markey leading all five polls fielded that month by double digits.
The University of New Hampshire conducted four surveys of the race beginning in February, providing a trend line. In those polls, Mr. Markey held double-digit leads in February and April before dipping to a six-percentage-point lead in June. In late August, the pollster’s fourth survey of the race showed Mr. Markey expanding his lead to 35 percentage points — his largest lead in any poll of this cycle.
A similar trend was seen in polls from Emerson College in which Mr. Markey led Mr. Moulton by only five percentage points in a May survey, but was up by 31 percentage points in one conducted only days before the primary.
The shift in the University of New Hampshire poll, in which Mr. Markey gained 22 percentage points of support and Mr. Moulton lost seven, came as the number of undecided voters dropped from 23 percent to 7 percent. In effect, as the undecided electorate shrank, those voters appeared to break overwhelmingly toward Mr. Markey.
Similar results were seen from other pollsters. A YouGov poll for the University of Massachusetts Amherst and WCVB put Mr. Markey ahead by 28 percentage points, while Suffolk University, in a poll commissioned by The Boston Globe, found him ahead by 15 percentage points. These numbers came even as the Boston Globe’s editorial board endorsed Mr. Moulton earlier this month, saying that Mr. Moulton could “bring new vision and vigor to an aging, ailing, and deeply unpopular Democratic Party.”
Regardless of Mr. Moulton’s calls for change, the favorability numbers for the candidates could help explain Mr. Markey’s ability to consolidate support. The University of New Hampshire found 63 percent of respondents had a favorable view of Mr. Markey, compared with just 26 percent for Mr. Moulton. The Suffolk University poll showed a similar gap.
As several recent elections have shown, a huge polling lead in a primary does not always lead to a blowout victory. Surprisingly close races in Wisconsin and Michigan showed how difficult it can be to accurately poll in primaries, leading to numerous questions about how to interpret such surveys. As a result, the margins of the Massachusetts primary, and whether they mirror Mr. Markey’s recent uptick in polling, will likely be closely watched throughout the political world.
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