After the unpredictability of last year’s flu season, when a new variant of the virus spread widely and rapidly, infectious disease experts are hoping for a tamer fall and winter this year.
Scientists look to countries like Australia, in the Southern Hemisphere, for clues about how the flu will play out. This year, the flu seems to be circulating in those regions at relatively moderate levels, and this year’s flu shots appear well matched to combat the virus. But it’s uncertain whether that will change as flu season unfolds in the Northern Hemisphere.
“I’m cautiously optimistic,” said Dr. Scott Roberts, an assistant professor of infectious diseases at the Yale School of Medicine, emphasizing “cautiously.”
Doctors are also reassured that there are new options for vaccination against the flu, and that at-home tests have entered the market in recent years.
Which Vaccine Should I Get?
An array of options for vaccination against the flu are tweaked every year to protect against the strains that are most likely to circulate. Traditional flu shots — delivered as shots in the arm — are already available at some pharmacies and doctors’ offices. They can be given to anyone 6-months-old and older. Research has shown that the vaccines reduce the risk of flu-related doctors’ visits by 40 to 60 percent.
Several types of these vaccines are available, including a higher-dose version of the shot that doctors recommend for adults 65 and older, because it stimulates higher levels of antibodies in older people.
The Food and Drug Administration also recently approved a new mRNA vaccine, which is expected to roll out soon, although it will may be less widely available than the traditional shot. The F.D.A. has fully cleared the shot for people ages 50 to 64 and has given accelerated approval for people over 65, meaning that people in that age group will be able to receive the vaccine even while further studies are continuing. Scientists think the vaccine will promote higher levels of antibodies and be able to more robustly defend against the flu.
“Starting at the age of 50 is a good time to start thinking about this better vaccine that gives you just that little bit of extra protection that’s going to keep you from getting really ill,” said Andrew Pekosz, a professor of molecular microbiology and immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
However, the mRNA flu vaccine can also have a greater number of mild side effects than the traditional flu shot, said Scott Hensley, an immunologist at the University of Pennsylvania who has worked on mRNA flu vaccine development.
FluMist, a vaccine administered as a nasal vaccine, is also available for people ages 2 to 49 who do not have weakened immune systems and are not pregnant. The spray can be given at home. FluMist tends to be most effective in children, although scientists are not really sure why, Dr. Pekosz said.
Doctors say all the vaccines are good options.
“The general rule of thumb we always say is: whichever one is offered to you, whichever one you’re going to get,” Dr. Roberts said. “Any vaccine is better than no vaccine.”.
Who should be vaccinated?
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends that everyone six months and older receive an annual flu shot.
The C.D.C. also recommends that most people get flu shots in September or October. Some people may opt to get vaccinated closer to the holidays, to maximize protection before family gatherings.
President Trump recently signed an executive order calling for the flu vaccine to be given to children only after consultation with a medical provider. However, that order does not change the C.D.C.’s standing recommendation.
What Tests and Treatments Are Available?
One factor that distinguishes the flu from other respiratory viruses is that it comes on suddenly. People often abruptly develop high fevers and can have symptoms like aching muscles, chills, fatigue, nausea, coughing and a sore throat.
People usually improve at home, with rest, but doctors may prescribe antiviral drugs like Tamiflu. These treatments are “not going to be slam dunks,” Dr. Roberts said, but they can help people recover a bit faster. However, you need to take the drug within 48 hours of when symptoms start. People at high risk of severe illness who live with — or are in frequent contact with — someone who tests positive can also take Tamiflu prophylactically.
At-home tests are available to determine whether you are suffering from Covid, the flu or respiratory syncytial virus. These tests deliver results after about 15 minutes. Dr. Roberts recommended that people test early on, especially if they are at higher risk of bad outcomes. “If somebody starts having symptoms on a Friday, they get worse over the weekend, they test on a Monday, for example — you’re already out of the window for any treatment,” he said.
But because it can take a few days for the viral load to build up enough to test positive, doctors recommend that if you still have symptoms and your first test was negative, you take a second test a few days later.
The post How Bad Will This Year’s Flu Season Be? appeared first on New York Times.
