President Donald Trump dismissed the Iranian attack on the United Arab Emirates this week, declaring that though the Iranians “shoot a drone every once in a while,” their attacks have little more than “nuisance value.” But what if Iran has something more in store?
What if Iran is planning an October surprise before the midterms?
Six months into the conflict, Trump is showing admirable patience and determination in his effort to disarm Iran. He has reimposed the blockade that is crushing Iran’s economy and reducing its oil exports to near zero. He has quietly taken control of the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. military escorting tankers carrying about 10 million barrels of oil through the Persian Gulf every day. And on Wednesday, Trump vowed to unleash what he called “ECONOMIC D-DAY” on Iran, imposing “the MOST CRUSHING ECONOMIC OPERATION EVER TAKEN AGAINST ANY COUNTRY” on any nation or entity that does business with the regime.
Most important, Trump made clear that he will “never apologize” for taking military action to stop Iran’s nuclear push — and told voters if “you [have] to pay a tiny little bit more for your gasoline, just remember you’re doing it so that a very evil country cannot have … a nuclear weapon.” That takes enormous political courage.
Here’s the problem: Though Trump is squeezing Iran economically, its leaders know that he is reluctant to resume major combat operations. They have tested him repeatedly — launching drone and missile attacks on commercial vessels in the strait, even firing ballistic missiles at American service members in Jordan — and have watched as Trump has on multiple occasions come close to ordering a massive final military assault, only to turn back at the last minute.
This has emboldened Iran. Though Trump did enormous damage during Operation Epic Fury — destroying more than 85 percent of Iran’s defense industrial base, sinking its navy, grounding its air force and annihilating its conventional military forces — he stopped with about 14 days of strikes left to finish U.S. Central Command’s target list. This left Iran with enough firepower to threaten Gulf energy infrastructure, U.S. bases and the ships making “dark runs” through the strait.
Iran could decide to use that firepower before Americans go to the polls in November. One reason Trump has hesitated to resume major combat has been his stated concern that Iran might retaliate by launching attacks on energy targets in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Gulf states, taking much of their oil off the world market and sparking a global depression. As Trump explained, “I never want to be the late, great Herbert Hoover.”
Well, what’s to stop Iran from doing just that right before the U.S. midterms? The Wall Street Journal reports that America’s allies in the Gulf have shared intelligence indicating that Iran’s leaders are preparing “to widen the war and raise the costs for the U.S.,” noting that “Iran’s leaders are increasingly talking about offensive operations on enemy territory.” Iran could launch attacks on energy targets to spike the price of oil just before Americans vote. It could try to kill U.S. service members — which would force Trump to launch retaliatory action, restarting the war. Or it could attempt a terrorist attack on U.S. soil or that of U.S. allies.
Iran believes that it is winning the battle of wills with Trump. As retired Gen. Jack Keane points out, Iran’s leaders may think that if they launch an attack before the midterms, “there’s a good chance that the Democrats will take control and maybe stop funding the war.” They may also believe that the United States intends to attack them after the midterms anyway, making it in their interest to resume fighting when it would do maximum political damage to Trump. Launching such a preemptive attack might not be rational, given the likely U.S. response. But Trump has repeatedly said that Iran’s leaders are “sick” and that “there is something wrong with them.” Well, sick people are prone to miscalculate.
The way to take this option off the table is to act first — by launching a final, decisive blow against the regime. If Iran does attempt an October surprise, Trump will have no choice but to resume major combat. It would be better to do so at a time of America’s choosing rather than Iran’s. If Trump were to launch a quick and lethal attack on Iran’s leadership, economic and energy infrastructure, and nuclear facilities now, he could credibly declare victory months before the midterms.
Before launching Operation Epic Fury in February, Trump weighed the risks of military action against the risks of inaction — and concluded that the risks to inaction were far greater. He was right. There are risks of inaction today as well.
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