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A memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States, reached in June and intended to provide breathing room to end the conflict between the two countries, expired today. The agreement will be little missed: A cease-fire had effectively ended within about three weeks of its signing, and the MOU had failed to produce fruitful negotiations or a real opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The president’s actions in the days leading up to the deadline demonstrate that his approach to the world, always contingent and improvisational, has lost its last shred of coherence. The White House cannot agree on the goals of the Iran war, much less on how to achieve them. The president is clashing with long-standing allies, in conflict with his vice president on the aims of the war, and publicly at odds with uniformed commanders over conditions for American troops stationed abroad.
Trump on Friday called on Americans to accept higher gasoline prices as the cost of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. He posted this morning that the “number one Goal is, and always will be, that Iran cannot have, in any way, shape, or form, a Nuclear Weapon”—even though his administration assessed before the war that Iran was not actively building weapons, even though the White House hasn’t offered any explanation for how the war will prevent the regime from restarting its weapons program, and even though the war may make Iran’s desire for a nuclear arsenal only more urgent. Meanwhile, Vice President Vance says that lowering fuel prices is actually now “goal No. 1” of the war.
In practice, the real aim of any diplomatic or military action now is resuming ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran seized early in the conflict—a risk foreseen by many analysts but not by Trump. For weeks now, Trump’s basic choice has been clear: Either launch a much larger military operation, including ground troops, or else surrender de facto control of the strait permanently.
The president refuses to accept this. He continues to complain that the Iranians are bad-faith negotiators, which is surely true but was well known before the war. During a speech on Friday, Trump said that “pretty soon, I’ll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States.” This is dishonest, delusional, or both. Such a declaration would contradict Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s insistence on the neutrality of the strait as well as Trump’s repeated statements that the U.S. should not act as a global policeman. But it’s also beside the point, because the United States has no means to control the strait.
The conditions for those U.S. troops already in the region are reportedly awful. Aboard the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, which has been at sea for nearly nine months, sailors report shortages of basic supplies, malfunctioning systems, and faltering mental health. When Trump was asked Friday about service members’ families who have publicly voiced their worries, he insisted that they were not concerned: “No, they’re not,” he said, adding that the ship’s deployment had not gone on “nearly long enough” yet. In a sign that military brass takes these worries seriously, the admiral overseeing the war visited the carrier this weekend and acknowledged mental-health issues.
With the U.S. unwilling or unable to break the Hormuz deadlock, Oman has embarked on negotiations with Iran to create a toll system for ships. This morning, Trump threatened to expand the war with strikes against that country. “If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the shit out of them,” he told Fox News. Trump’s frustration with Oman is understandable, yet a threat to attack a venerable regional ally is still shocking.
This kind of public conflict with allies has become typical. Over the weekend, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner—who has no official government post—met with Hamas officials in an attempt to revitalize an administration plan to disarm the group and rebuild Gaza. That plan is struggling for several reasons, including a flat rejection from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has long been close to Trump and reportedly talked him into the Iran war.
Meanwhile, Trump announced yesterday that he was curtailing joint military exercises with South Korea, “based on my very good relationship with Kim Jong Un, of North Korea.” This supposed friendship has produced a splashy 2018 summit and flattering correspondence that Trump purloined from the White House after he lost the 2020 election, but it has done nothing to advance American interests. Most important, it has done nothing to curtail North Korea’s nuclear program. At the same time that Trump is fighting a war in Iran that he claims will prevent nuclear proliferation, he’s bestowing a favor on North Korea, which has offered no concessions and many threats. But Trump also gave another reason for his snub, noting that South Korea—like every other major U.S. ally—has declined to get involved in the Iran quagmire.
Throughout Trump’s two terms, many analysts have sought to discern some sort of guiding doctrine to his foreign policy. The incoherence of his actions in the past week alone should provide further evidence that looking for a framework is futile. Earlier this year, my colleagues Missy Ryan and Ashley Parker reported that the White House’s foreign-affairs philosophy was “Fuck around and find out.” Administration officials meant this as a warning to the leaders of other countries. But as the current crisis festers, they, too, are finding out.
Related:
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- Julia Curlee: “The Trump White House needed me—until the fact that I am trans became public.”
- Jonathan Chait on what Trump officials mean by “never”
- Even college students have stopped hanging out.
- NATO’s nightmare
Today’s News
- A 60-day window for the United States and Iran to negotiate an end to the war expired today without a final agreement. The June framework laid out terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, easing some financial restrictions on Iran, and addressing its nuclear program, but talks have stalled as both sides have traded attacks and accusations of violations.
- Jared Kushner met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem to discuss President Trump’s plan for Gaza after Israel said it refuses to pull back its military from Gaza until Hamas fully disarms.
- The Supreme Court declined for a second time to review Trump’s appeal of a $5 million civil judgment awarded to E. Jean Carroll. A federal jury in 2023 found Trump liable for sexually abusing and defaming Carroll; Trump paid the $5 million award last month.
Dispatches
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The Wonder Reader: Isabel Fattal explores what the last weeks of summer can offer.
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Evening Read
The Problem With Child-Led Potty Training
By Stephanie H. Murray
The time has come to admit it: The United States has a potty-training problem. In Utah, a law came into effect last year mandating that, with some exceptions, children will not be allowed to enroll in public school without first being toilet trained. Kansas lawmakers introduced a similar bill in January, and at least one district in Florida is considering a policy change that could force kindergartners to stay home until they are out of diapers.
These directives have come about because growing numbers of children are showing up to school unprepared to use the toilet. And U.S. schools aren’t the only ones confronting this issue …
The shift toward delayed potty training, I learned while reporting this article, has been under way for quite a long time.
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Culture Break
Watch. The masked web-slinger has been setting box-office records for decades, even as the popularity of superhero movies wanes, David Sims writes. And this summer’s new Spider-Man sequel (out now in theaters) has broken nearly every record imaginable.
Explore. Poetry critics didn’t always think much of Mary Oliver, whose work could sometimes read like self-help—but they didn’t give her enough credit, Hillary Kelly argues.
Rafaela Jinich contributed to this newsletter.
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