California leads the nation in wildfire exposure by a significant margin and over 1.28 million properties are facing moderate or greater wildfire risk.
According to 2026 data from Cotality, the Golden State accounts for $850 billion in potential reconstruction cost value (RCV), highlighting the massive economic exposure concentrated within its borders.
California’s wildfire exposure dwarfs that of other Western states, carrying more than five times the number of at-risk properties compared to second-place Colorado, according to the report.
The property-data analytics firm evaluated 6.8 million California homes on wildfire mitigation measures like fire-resistant roofing and cleared brush using a regulatory-approved insurance rate scoring model.
The analysis revealed that the top 10% most-prepared properties in the Golden State experience 78% lower losses than average while the bottom 10% face losses over 10 times the average.
A poorly prepared home is roughly 47 times riskier and expects $47 in damages for every $1 lost by a well-prepared home, according to the Cotality analysis.
The report highlights that 6 of the nation’s 10 most exposed metropolitan areas are also located in California. High property values and dense populations near wildland-urban interfaces drive these totals.
Cotality scientists noted that El Niño events in 2026 will redistribute wildfire risk across regions rather than eliminate it entirely.
“Conditions in the Southwest should ease once winter precipitation arrives, while the Pacific Northwest dries into conditions associated with larger, more extreme fires,” the report said.
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