When the Pacific is overly active with tropical cyclones like Lala, the Atlantic typically remains quiet. That has been the case so far this hurricane season, with more activity in the Pacific and less in the Atlantic — but in the public imagination, one major storm can upset that relative quiet.
A little over two months into the Atlantic hurricane season, the United States has largely been spared. There have been only three Atlantic storms that have grown strong enough to merit names: Arthur, Bertha and, just last week, Cristobal.
That was about what meteorologists expected when they said this year’s hurricane season would probably have fewer storms than most other seasons. In a report this month, experts said there would be seven to 13 named storms, one fewer than they predicted in May. Of those, two to six could become hurricanes, and of those hurricanes, at most two could reach the major hurricane threshold, they said. A typical Atlantic season has 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
This forecast is predicated on the near certainty that an El Niño weather pattern will limit activity. The global phenomenon is expected to persist into the fall, providing a stabilizing force that may act as a lid on Atlantic activity.
“When El Niño emerges, it usually becomes the dominant factor in total hurricane season activity, and this El Niño continues to get stronger every month,” Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster, said this month during the updated announcement from the National Weather Service.
But Ken Graham, the National Weather Service director, reminded people in May that El Niño’s effect wasn’t certain: Each season could unfold differently.
What the public perceives as a “busy” hurricane season isn’t necessarily the total number of storms; it is where they make landfall. And that perception “is a very U.S.-centric thing,” said Phil Klotzbach, a researcher at Colorado State University.
He noted that while last year’s hurricane season was above average by nearly every scientific metric, many in the United States might remember it as being quiet because few major storms hit the U.S. coast. But there were three Category 5 hurricanes in 2025, including Melissa, whose winds and flooding caused devastation in Jamaica.
The statistical likelihood of a major U.S. landfall is even lower this year, but it is not zero.
Memorable Atlantic storms can still break through El Niño.
In the world of meteorology, El Niño is neither good nor bad — it is just a natural shift in global weather patterns. Across the Atlantic Ocean, it is a formidable opponent for developing storms. Strong El Niño patterns in the Pacific produce high-altitude changes in the Atlantic wind that can shred developing hurricanes before they form.
But not always. In 2023, an El Niño was present, but Atlantic Ocean temperatures were at record highs. This created a tug of war between El Niño’s wind changes and the ocean’s raw energy. That season eventually produced 20 named storms, far exceeding initial predictions.
This year, Atlantic Ocean temperatures have been near their historical averages. If that holds, this year may mirror 2015, which had only 11 named storms.
Even in that relatively quiet year, though, Hurricane Joaquin damaged islands in the central and southeastern Bahamas and sank the cargo ship El Faro.
And although 2018 was another mostly quiet El Niño year, Hurricane Michael still hit the Florida coast. Even in an environment that should have been hostile to the formation of a hurricane, Michael found a small pocket of calm conditions that allowed it to intensify into a Category 5, wiping out homes along the Panhandle.
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