President Donald Trump’s tanking popularity presents Democrats a “historic” opportunity to flip southern Senate seats they’ve been unable to claim for decades, according to an analysis by CNN’s Harry Enten.
With less than three months until the midterms and Trump’s approval rating sinking to new lows, polling shows Democratic candidates leading in three crucial states, according to the data analyst.
“So three southern states, three former Confederate states, and you see that Democrats are leading in them all,” Enten said. “There has not been a Senate Democratic win in North Carolina since 2008, and in Texas, you have to go all the way back since 1988. So it could, in fact, be a historic year for Democrats in these three southern states.”
Polls found Sen. Jon Ossoff up 13 points in Georgia, former Gov. Roy Cooper up nine points in North Carolina, and James Talarico holding a two-point lead in Texas, and Enten attributes much of the shift to white, college-educated voters moving away from the Republican Party.
In North Carolina, Trump won that group by 19 points in 2016, but polling now shows Cooper leading among the same demographic – a roughly 30-point swing.
In Texas, Trump’s 31-point advantage among white college voters in 2016 has shrunk to just a one-point Republican edge.
In Georgia, a 41-point Trump margin in 2016 has narrowed enough that Ossoff now trails by only 13 points among that group.
Averaged across the three states, Enten pointed to roughly a 31-point shift among white college-educated voters toward Democrats.
Meanwhile, on Newsmax Thursday, Talarico’s opponent Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton received a warningon similar lines.
“With all due respect, AG Paxton, I mean, when are you going to expose James Talarico?” she demanded to know, noting there are only about 80 days until the midterms. “The clock’s ticking. Many are worried that this might result in the Senate going to the Democrats.”
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