As wildfires rushed down the hills surrounding Los Angeles in January 2025, Polymarket users were trying to correctly predict how many acres would burn — chasing a payout for getting it right.
Some users appeared to grow uneasy, even as Polymarket let people bet on whether the fires would spread to nearby counties or when they might be contained.
“i hope i lose,” one user wrote in the site’s comments section, adding: “i wont cash out as i’m a man of my word.” Another replied, “Don’t be a man of your word, be a man of your money!”
By the time the fires were contained three weeks later, more than 30,000 acres had burned, 29 people had died and more than $1 million in fire-related bets had been wagered on Polymarket.
Now, as new fire burns in Los Angeles County and eastern Washington, where hundreds of structures have been destroyed and some 65,000 people displaced, nine Democratic senators want to “rein in” prediction markets’ payouts on wildfires.
The lawmakers warned in a letter to Michael Selig, the chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, that the bets could create an incentive for people to commit arson or hinder efforts to fight ongoing blazes.
“Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit,” the letter states. “There’s also the heightened risk — according to state and local fire officials — that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful.”
A spokesperson for Polymarket said the platform does not offer markets on wildfires to U.S. consumers, but its international platform lets users trade on wildfires.
The CFTC did not immediately respond to a request for comment about whether the agency will take any new action in response to the letter. The senators requested a response from Selig by Friday.
The CFTC is considering proposed regulations for prediction markets, including a provision that bans markets against the public interest. The agency previously said that some markets related to death, such as war or an assassination, would probably get banned under the proposed regulations.
A wildfire is “an incredibly scary, dangerous event, and you never want to create an incentive for people to slow their work to put out a fire,” said Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Oregon), who signed the letter. “You never want to encourage the obscene act of starting a fire,” he said.
“When I heard that they were opening up betting on wildfires, I was astounded,” Merkley added. “You have the ability of human action to influence the outcome.”
Jamie L. Pietruska, a historian at Rutgers University said people have gambled on weather for centuries, such as how long it might take for a rainstorm to end. But prediction markets allowing betting on wildfires is different, Pietruska said, because users could control the outcomes — unlike hurricanes or floods.
“Wildfire is the obvious case of the perverse incentive,” Pietruska said.
Authorities have said the recent fires in Washington and the 2025 Los Angeles fires were ignited by arsonists, though officials have not said either appears to have been motivated by prediction markets.
Prediction platforms, including Polymarket, offer users the chance to trade on a variety of topics, including the blockades in the Strait of Hormuz and YouTuber challenges.
Polymarket launched in 2020 but was prohibited from operating in the United States from 2022 to 2025 because it did not properly register with the CFTC. Some users, however, could continue accessing the site’s international platform by using VPNs, against Polymarket’s terms of service.
In December, Polymarket launched a CFTC-compliant version to U.S. consumers, leading to explosive growth in popularity and concerns over insider trading.
In April, a U.S. soldier was charged after he was accused of using classified information to win $400,000 on Polymarket in a series of bets relating to the December capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces. The next month, Rep. James Comer (R-Kentucky), who chairs the House Oversight Committee, opened an investigation into prediction markets, citing concerns over insider trading.
Pietruksa, the Rutgers historian, said prediction markets allowing people to bet on natural disasters “casualize catastrophe” by letting users wager on them as they would events with seemingly few stakes, like which words President Donald Trump will say in upcoming speeches. (Last month, Trump’s teleprompter operator was placed on leave for being accused of exactly that, after winning more than $100,000.)
In a statement, Polymarket’s spokesperson said, “While we are not blind to the risks, removing these markets does not prevent a tragedy but makes the most accurate information less accessible to the people who need it most.” Polymarket does not “set lines, take the other side of trades, or profit from outcomes,” the statement adds.
“When tragedy unfolds, people turn to the news for commentary and they come to Polymarket for information,” the spokesperson said.
But Merkley said he doesn’t see any value in asking users to guess how many wildfires might ignite or how.
“It may be fun to watch horses run around a track or watch a sporting event,” Merkley said. “There’s nothing fun about a fire.”
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