Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist and state lawmaker in Wisconsin, has been leading the polls in her state’s Democratic primary for governor by wide margins. The only nonpartisan survey since the field settled showed Ms. Hong in the lead by more than 20 percentage points, most likely benefiting from a chaotic race in which the field of candidates competing with her has been in flux for the past month.
Ms. Hong already had a two-percentage-point lead over Mandela Barnes, a former lieutenant governor and state representative, in a Wedgewood poll conducted when the Democratic field was at its largest in early July. Her advantage grew significantly in subsequent polling after David Crowley’s initial departure and the exits of Mr. Barnes and Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, the race’s more moderate candidates. When the dust settled, Mr. Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, who re-entered the race and was endorsed by Gov. Tony Evers, was Ms. Hong’s chief rival for the nomination.
In all, nine polls were fielded in the three months before the election, but only two have come out since the candidate field settled — and one of those was an internal poll for Mr. Crowley. Even that internal poll showed him well behind Ms. Hong.
Illustrating how support has shifted, a State Navigate poll from late July, when Mr. Barnes was still in the race, showed a lead of 29 percentage points for Ms. Hong. The same firm went back into the field shortly after Mr. Barnes dropped out, and while Ms. Hong’s support stayed steady at 44 percent, neither of her remaining opponents capitalized on the change, with Mr. Crowley and Kelda Roys, a state senator, picking up seven percentage points each, splitting the support that had previously gone to Mr. Barnes.
Primary polling is difficult. In Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, running a progressive campaign, had wide leads in the polling leading up to the race yet ended up winning by a far smaller margin than some had anticipated. But given Ms. Hong’s cushion of more than 20 points, and the fact that neither of the more moderate options has been able to consolidate support, these Wisconsin polls would need to be radically off for this race to be competitive.
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