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What to Watch in Virginia’s First Primary Since Its Redistricting Battle

August 4, 2026
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What to Watch in Virginia’s First Primary Since Its Redistricting Battle

Democrats across the country celebrated in April after Virginia voters greenlit a plan to cut the number of safe Republican House seats in the state from five to just one. Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the House minority leader, said he hoped that the new congressional map would offset the Republican Party’s gains in states like Texas, North Carolina, Ohio and Missouri, which drew new district lines at President Trump’s behest.

But the Democrats’ new congressional map dissolved just weeks later, when the Virginia Supreme Court ruled it was unconstitutional. The decision sunk Democrats’ nearly $70 million investment in the referendum and again plunged hopefuls into a game of musical chairs: Some candidates dropped out of races that had once seemed winnable, and others returned to hostile territory.

Virginia Democrats are still bullish, saying they expect to flip at least two seats this cycle. Here are some of the major races in the state as voters head to the polls for Tuesday’s primary, the first election since the congressional maps were passed.

A tenured Republican incumbent is heading for a tight re-election battle.

Before the old map was restored, Representative Rob Wittman, a Republican, was facing a re-election campaign in a Richmond-area district that Vice President Kamala Harris would have carried by seven points in 2024. Instead, Mr. Wittman is now the nominee in a district that Mr. Trump carried by five percentage points that year.

But Democrats still see the seat as one of their best opportunities for a flip in November. The House Democratic campaign arm has supported Shannon Taylor, a prosecutor running on a law-and-order platform. Ms. Taylor has raised more than $2.1 million so far, significantly more than any of her six opponents.

A Democratic primary is likely to set up a rematch between two Navy veterans.

In 2022, bipartisan redistricting helped Representative Jen Kiggans, a Navy veteran and a Republican, oust the incumbent, Elaine Luria, in Virginia’s Second Congressional District.

Now, Ms. Kiggans is likely to face a high-stakes rematch in a seat that the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rated as one of the nation’s 18 most competitive districts. Ms. Luria, who is also a Navy veteran, is the front-runner among the four candidates competing for the Democratic nomination for the district. Ms. Luria has the backing of the Democratic establishment.

A former representative is facing resistance in his bid to retake his seat in the Fifth Congressional District.

Former Representative Tom Perriello, a Democrat, jumped into the primary for a largely rural central Virginia district when the proposed map promised friendly terrain. Mr. Perriello leads the field of three Democrats, but with the old boundaries restored, the winner faces a steep challenge in the general election in a district Mr. Trump carried by 12 points in 2024.

Representative John McGuire, a former Navy SEAL elected in 2024, is under pressure in the Republican primary from Melanie Lucero, a real estate broker and Marine veteran who has cast Mr. McGuire as a “career politician” who is out of touch with constituents.

An architect of the redistricting plan and a popular author saw their paths to victory all but disappear.

An architect of the redistricting push, Dan Helmer, a Democratic House delegate, opened a congressional run this year for a seat redrawn to lean heavily blue. But he dropped out after the state Supreme Court decision pulled it back to safely Republican territory.

Beth Macy, the author of the popular nonfiction book “Dopesick” on the opioid epidemic in Appalachia, was set to run in a district that Kamala Harris would have carried by eight points in 2024. Representative Ben Cline, a Republican, regained a glide path to victory in the district in May, but Ms. Macy has stayed in the race, telling The New York Times that Democrats “can’t just roll over.”

Senator Mark Warner will top the ticket, a likely boon for Democrats.

Unopposed in his primary, Senator Mark Warner, 71, is locked in for a final re-election bid. Mr. Warner, the influential vice chair of both the Senate Democratic Caucus and the Senate Intelligence Committee, is heavily favored to win a fourth term, giving Democrats what they hope will be a boost in voter turnout. He was first elected in 2008.

The post What to Watch in Virginia’s First Primary Since Its Redistricting Battle appeared first on New York Times.

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